Toledo at Ball State
West Virginia at Iowa State
College Football Side and Total Predictions
We’re going into the second month of college football. My handicapping should be getting easier now that I have a couple weeks of data accumulated, but it’s the opposite.
I’m tracking eight different handicapping models and only have one or two that are giving me any kind of edge, records I can bet ON or AGAINST.
Fortunately I’ve got one of them today.
Because I’m getting no games that qualify for my best model (NP spots) I’m forced to look for new models/systems.
And I have one that might add value to my 2026 Battle with the Books.
On Unders it has a record of 3-9.
This week it says Toledo and Ball State stay Under 54 so I’m Fading and taking the Over.
Toledo at Ball State
So far this season these two are both Over teams. Seven of their eight games have come in higher than the posted total.
Toledo is 4-0 Ov/UN
Ball State is 3-1.
This game opened at 51′, was bet up to 52′, is now back at 51′ for the commonly available number.
Three of Toledo’s four games have come in at 52 or higher. Same with Ball State, three of their four games have come in at 52 or higher.
There are 13 teams in the MAC conference.
The Ball State Cardinals (See? THEY have an “s” at the end of their name, unlike those jerks from Stanford) are ranked dead last in the conference for defense, giving up a whopping 37.5 PPG.
Can the Rockets take advantage of the Cardinals league’s worst defense?
They should be able to.
They not only have the Mac’s top scoring offense (173 total point scored) but they’ve scored almost 30 points more than their next nearest competitor, U.Mass (145 scored.)
On offense, the Cardinals are averaging 18 PPG but that number is skewed by the 41 they put up against FCS Stony Brook.
In three games against FBS competition they scored 13, 15, and 3 points.
The 3 came against Ohio State’s defense, but even if you remove that you have a team that’s barely scoring 14 PPG.
Last year’s meeting between these two came in a little short of the number I need on Saturday.
They combined for 47 in a 38-9 Rocket victory.
The Cardinals only scored nine points, but that was on the Rd. They should get at least a TD more at Hm this weekend.
There are 138 teams ranked in the FBS.
Ball State is ranked 135th on PPG offense.
There are 138 teams ranked in the FBS.
Ball State is ranked 134th on PPG defense.
This game has “BLOWOUT” written all over it.
Added Play: West Virginia at Iowa State
My T1 model for picking totals has a record of 11-11 on Unders.
No edge there, BUT . . .
The morning slate of games has West Virginia at Iowa State and it qualifies.
BOTH of these two teams have appeared in a T1 Under this season.
BOTH games went Over.
I’m Fading it.
My plays:
W Vig/Iowa St Ov 53
Toledo -21
Toledo/Ball St Ov 51′
Record: 7-8
