Stanford vs Notre Dame
Saturday, October 10th, 3:30 PM
In a battle of two teams whose seasons are heading in opposite directions, the undefeated Notre Dame plays host to Stanford on Saturday afternoon in South Bend. The Fighting Irish come in riding the nations’ second longest current winning streak at fifteen games, which is made all the more impressive considering all of those were won by ten points or more, a run that ties Notre Dame for the second longest in NCAA history of consecutive victories by double-digits. The Cardinal on the other hand just lost 57-3 to Wake Forest, sit at 2-3 and now face a schedule where they will only be favored one more time the remainder of the year.
Warren’s Commission
The Stanford offense ranks just 131st in the country in scoring which has been a considerable issue in their three losses where they average just over five points per game. Quarterback Davis Warren was coming off the best game of his college career in a win against Georgia Tech before having one his worst in last week’s pummeling against the Demon Deacons. He has been efficient enough on the season with just one interception, but throwing for just five touchdowns in five games is a good reason why the offense has had issues putting points on the scoreboard.
The players Warren looks for the most through the air are Caden High, who has caught three touchdowns and is team leader in receiving yards, along with tight end Benji Blackburn, who his first in receptions and cool names. Other starters at receiver Nico Brown and Jordan Onovughe both have ten receptions on the season, with the latter having posted a touchdown as well. The Cardinal passing game ranks just 85th overall in the country, which may not sound like much, but it’s at least considerably better than their 135th ranked running game.
Ford vs Futility
Junior Micah Ford is the lead running back for Stanford and has the only four rushing touchdowns the team has posted this season. He is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry though, and has had a history in his college career of finding success mostly with volume, as the only four games he has scored in out of 22 total were ones in which he had at least nineteen carries. Backing him up is Sedrick Irvin, who has yet to really differentiate himself in the backfield this year or any other, having scored in just two games overall in 28 played. Stanford does not have the offense to trade punches with the Irish and because of that will desperately need Ford and Irvin to find another level if they want to have a shot at controlling the clock in any way. Unfortunately standing in their way is the pro-caliber Notre Dame defense awaiting them on Saturday.
Future Sunday Squad
The Irish defense continues to impress and now sits at first overall nationally in yards allowed per game, fourth against the run, fourteenth versus the pass and seventh in points allowed per game. They have four players that as of now are expected to go in the top 50 of the NFL Draft; top cornerback prospect Leonard Moore, Safety Tae Johnson, lineman Boubacar Traore and linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, in addition to multiple others that will be playing at the next level in 2027. Notre Dame has yet to face a team that has been able to keep up with them past the three-quarter mark and with holes all over the Cardinal offense there is not a lot of evidence to think that this weekend will be any different.
Magic Carrpet Ride
Keeping the NFL theme, Irish quarterback CJ Carr has only added to his first-round resume on a weekly basis and after dismantling the North Carolina defense now has thirteen touchdown passes on the season compared to only one interception with an additional three scores on the ground. He should have no issue adding to those totals this weekend against a Stanford defense that ranks second to last in all of college football at 137th against the pass, 133rd in points allowed and 134th in yards per game. And also makes for a decent Heisman bet at 8-1 odds considering the Irish chances of going undefeated in the regular season when all the voting happens.
Faisers On
Wideout Jordan Faison has emerged as Carr’s top target in the game, leading the team in the three major receiving categories of yards, touchdowns and receptions. Fellow starter Micah Gilbert is a close second, and the receiving crew got further good news when Jaden Greathouse got into the endzone for the first time since 2024 against UNC. Notre Dame has seemingly tried to get him involved each game this year, but so far the results have been limited and more so concentrated in his career, posting 13 receptions in two BCS playoff games two seasons ago but only 18 receptions combined in his other 11 matchups. He should have plenty of opportunity to further get off the snide against the previously mentioned porous pass defense of Stanford.
Backfield Brigade
Going into last week a majority of the early game backfield work had gone to Aneyas Williams and Nolan James, but last week added another name to the mix with freshman Jonaz Walton breaking out with 120 yards rushing on 23 carries. All three have now gained over 200 yards apiece on the ground, though while Walton now looks for his first career touchdown, Williams and James have combined for ten total while also posting 17 receptions out of the backfield. All three have proven to be viable options out of the backfield for coordinator Mike Denbrock and as a whole could be in for an even easier day if Stanford linebackers Matt Rose and Jahsiah Graham miss another game due to injury, most notably Rose who leads the Cardinal in tackles.
Pick Me Out a Winner
Nearly every trend for Saturday’s game favors Notre Dame. It’s not just that against the spread the Irish are 18-9-1 in their last 28 games as double-digit favorites or 29-10-2 against Power Four teams or the fact that they cover nearly every time they win, having gone 24-4-1 versus the number in their last 29 victories. It’s more how bad Stanford has been. The Cardinal on the road against the spread are 0-13 overall, 0-10 against ranked teams, and 10-29 as an underdog. They are also 6-22 in their last 28 versus the number against ranked teams regardless of where they play and more importantly are looking down the barrel of another losing season and eighth consecutive year without a bowl game.
All that being said, 38 points is an awfully large head start and that desperate feeling in a rivalry game could be a decent motivating factor for the Cardinal. But it’s also what is on the line for Notre Dame after the Stanford game, namely a road trip to Provo the following week to take on top ten BYU followed by a primetime matchup with revenge on the mind against Miami at home a couple weeks after that. With Carr and the Irish offense likely to have the game in hand by halftime, there would be little reason to risk playing him late with what awaits them on the schedule in the next month.
I’m not in love with picking the Cardinal this week but with the five touchdown+ head start I am taking them to get the cover on Saturday in South Bend.
PICK: STANFORD +38
