RBD lays the points with Washington against a struggling Jameis Winston and the Giants.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
A Play and Prediction Based on the Severe Suckage of Jameis Winston
Most of you are going to get up this morning and go to work where you will perform whatever tasks your employer requires of you.
How would you like to do so under the watchful eye of a live audience of more than 65,000 mostly hostile people who are booing and jeering, rooting for you to screw up?
How would you like to do so knowing millions more will be watching you on TV?
It would be a stressful environment with a lot of pressure, yes?
On top of all that, how would you like it if your boss just hired a new guy who does the exact same task he hired you to do?
Even more pressure and stress, yes?
Well that’s the exact situation New York Giants quarterback Jameis Winston faces this week when his team heads to Washington to take on the Redskins.
Winston has won two of three games that he’s played in, but he’s thrown the same amount of TDS as INT’s, three.
He’s completed just 55% of his passes and his QB rating is the lowest in the league at just 70.4.
And this week the Giants traded with Minnesota to get QB JJ McCarthy.
Their NFC East pals the Cowboys, Eagles, and Redskins have all started the season off with poor performances so somehow the Giants find themselves in first place at 3-1, but they know they won’t be in first place for long if they don’t get a better performance out of the QB position.
One of the reasons they’re in first place is because they faced the winless Titans at 0-4 and the 1-3 Cardinals. And the schedule continues to favor them with 1-3 Washington, 0-4 Houston and 1-3 New Orleans in their next three games.
But this only serves to put even more pressure on Winston as expectations will be high facing subpar competition. A loss to any one of these next three opponents and the cries for McCarthy to step in will only increase.
My money’s riding with Washington this week.
My wager is backed by a few factors.
One – part of the reason the Giants are 3-1 while the Redskins are 1-3 can be found in strength of schedule. Washington has played the 8th toughest schedule thus far, while the Giants have benefited from the weakest schedule, they’re ranked dead last, 32nd out of 32 teams.
Two – the ‘Skins get starting QB Jayden Daniels back.
Three – to put it bluntly, Winston suffers from severe suckage. Coming into the season he had a record of 2-8 as a starter over the past two years. He’s 2-0 this season but only because he faced losers Tennessee and Arizona, and he got to play them in the friendly confines of his home stadium, in front of home fans. This week, he goes on the Rd to face a hostile crowd and a Washington team desperately in need of a win to stay competitive in the East.
The line on this one opened at Washington -3 but has moved to -3′. It’ll be -4 or more by game time so I’m buying it today and also buying the hook.
I look for the natural order of things to be restored on Sunday. I look at Winston’s 2-8 over the past two years compared to his 2-0 this season and think the odds favor 2-0 becoming 2-1 rather than 3-0.
Writing up my picks and analysis requires me to give my reasons for laying my money down on a team, so I have to talk about the different handicapping models I use.
But I get tired of writing/talking about them, which means my readers are probably tired of hearing/reading about them (this is the part where you all say, “No, no, we LOVE reading about your systems” even though I can’t hear you.)
Well, I, you, we, get a break from writing and reading about them this week as this game does not qualify for any of my models.
WAIT – in my weekly review article this week didn’t I remind myself to stick with my models because both of my NFL losses this season came from when I went with “gut feel” picks??!!
Yes, but those were on prop bets.
This is a bet on a side, not a prop (and I won’t have to swear off of betting sides if they don’t fit my systems unless I lose this week.)
My play:
Wash -3, -133
Record 3-2
