Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Game Pick and Analysis
In my first article of the NFL season I explained why I don’t like betting on any of the New York teams, in any sport.
Despite that, my first pick of the year was ON the Giants, and they covered for me.
In week two I returned to my normal mode and bet AGAINST the Giants, and won.
And this week I did the same (see my article on NY/Wash.)
For my second NFL play this week I’m doing what I did in week one, betting ON a New York team even though I don’t like to.
While the Giants are sitting in first place despite having a lousy quarterback, the Jets are sitting at 1-3 despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Yes, as strange as it sounds, the Jet’s Geno Smith is in the top five with a quarterback rating of 109.
Only Lock, Purdy, Jackson, and Lawrence have a higher ranking.
So why are the Jets only 1-3 and just one game out of last place (thanks to the 0-4 Dolphins?)
One of the reasons is kind of the opposite of why the Giants are in first place.
The GMen are in first place in part because they have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, ranked 32nd out of 32 teams
The Jets?
They’ve played the 15th toughest schedule.
They started the season with their only easy game, against Tennessee.
They won 23-10.
After that, it was three straight games against the toughest division in football last season, the only division where every team had a winning record in 2025 – the NFC North.
In week two, at home against Green Bay, they managed to keep it close before losing in OT.
Their next two were on the Rd against Detroit and Chicago, both losses.
This week they return Hm and get a much easier opponent in the Cleveland Browns.
Yes, the Browns are in first place at 3-2, the only loss coming against the surprisingly good Jacksonville Jaguars, but I think they’re playing over their heads.
Cleveland QB DeShaun Watson is 3-1 as a starter this season. In his last year as a starter, 2024, Watson was 1-6. And I expect the 3-1 from this season to start heading in the same direction as his 1-6.
In this game the books are offering a team of three straight losses (NYJ) as a -2′ Fav over a team off of three straight wins (Cle.)
They couldn’t open it at NYJ -3 because they would get flooded with Cleveland money so -2′ is the right number and I think laying the points is the right way to go.
Despite the disparity in their records I think the teams are pretty evenly matched, so I’m heavily weighing the fact that the Browns are on the Rd and the Jets are at Hm (and more in desperate need for a W.)
And two of my personal handicapping models support my opinion.
WF1 says the Browns should be the Favorite.
WF1 has a record of 4-5 overall on the season, not much of an edge.
But . . . it’s 1-4 on Rd teams. A BIG edge.
And a new model I’m tracking this season also says Cleveland should be the Fav.
Only one Rd team has qualified thus far, Green Bay in Week 1 vs Minnesota.
The Packers lost, 39-22.
Yes, I don’t have a lot of data accumulated on both of the models but it’s early in the season so that’s to be expected so you have to go with what you have
My play:
NYJ -2′
Record: 3-2
