Weekly Rant and Review
A good week, 3-2 on my picks. I’ll take it.
NFL Review
On Saturday, I sent a note to my editor letting him know I wasn’t going to be sending in an article for NFL Sunday.
I had no bets in my pocket and was unlikely to make any.
After running all the day’s games through my various handicapping models I came up empty-handed.
I hate not contributing at least one pick but I hate forcing one even more, knowing that people may read my analysis and recommendation and bet on it.
Sunday morning I looked at the games again and realized it may be my last chance to bet AGAINST Jameis Winston.
JJ McCarthy was circling like a vulture, ready to swoop down and feed on Winston’s interception throwing carcass.
I took another look at Strength of Schedule for both the Giants and the Saints, and came to the same conclusion I came to last week – the Giants were an empty suit; smoke and mirrors; frauds.
They had no business being in first place.
And they weren’t going to be there long so NOW is the moment to take advantage of it.
So I made my bet, wrote my article, and submitted it. Then I watched in horror as the Saints defense, up by 24 points with just 11 minutes left in the game, allowed the Giants to score 17 straight points.
The Saints offense was no better, going three and out on their last two drives, unable to run out the clock and secure the victory.
On their final drive, the Giants advanced 57 yards to the Saints 14-yard line.
And I’m having flashbacks to last week and Washington’s cataclysmic meltdown.
On 4th and one, with just 14 seconds left on the clock, McCarthy threw an incomplete pass.
I escaped with a win.
I wrote two notes in my NFL handicapping workbook.
One: the Saints can’t close.
The defense gave up 17 points in Q4 and the offense failed to get a first down when they needed it. Twice.
Head coach Kellen Moore, in a display of innovative play calling genius, ran the same play on five of six downs, handing the ball off to Kendre Miller for no gain up the middle.
Remember all of that before betting on them again.
Two: I’m going to miss Jameis Winston.
Miami Update
I only made one Regular Season Wins bet this year, Miami Under 4′. In a 17 Game season they need to win approximately one out of every four games to get to five.
As predicted in my analysis they started out losing every one of their first four games.
The second set of four began the same way, a loss to Cincinnati.
They have 12 games left to get five wins to beat me, including Buffalo twice, New England twice, Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay.
“Chicken number one, chicken number two, chicken number three 3” etc.
(In sports betting it is considered bad luck to count your chickens before they’re hatched. But, there I am doing it anyway.)
This one’s in the bank.
College Review
I expected Cincinnati to cover for me and UMass to give the unit back.
It was the opposite.
The Minuteman win looks close on paper, losing by seven and getting a win by the hook, but they were ahead on the scoreboard for the entire game.
A Buffalo FG with seconds left on the game clock sent the game to overtime, which means +7′ had a very high percentage of winning. The only way I could lose was if Buffalo goes up by 7 points and a Massachusetts’ turnover saw six scored the other way (which actually happened on Saturday in another game.)
The Cincinnati loss hurt.
For 59 minutes and 58 seconds Cincinnati was never behind on the scoreboard.
Score tied, final minute of the game, they had West Virginia pinned deep on their own two yard line, third down.
A stop and a punt meant the Bearcats would be in good field position to get the game winning FG.
They couldn’t get the stop and lost when the Mountaineers kicked a field goal with two seconds left on the clock.
I got an easy Over in the Wyoming Game, fell short in the UTEP game for a 2-2 day.
I’m okay with that because going into this week I have two high value plays to look for totals (75% and 60%) and a 71% Fade for sides.
I’ll know which games qualify by Tuesday morning and will be posting them soon.
WNBA Review
Like I said last week, who cares?
With Clark and Cunningham out of the playoffs the ratings continue to drop, by some estimates as much as 70%.
Naturally, this put the league’s propaganda machine into overdrive on damage control. The internet is chock full of articles lamely trying to debunk The Caitlin Effect.
CDS (Clark Derangement Syndrome) has now surpassed TDS, but the math doesn’t lie.
Atlanta versus Indiana regular season averaged 17,000 fans in the seats.
After the league used the refs to eliminate the Fever, game one of Atlanta verse New York in the second round of the playoffs saw attendance drop to just above 9,000.
And here’s another example of why the league continues to lose money. They foolishly moved the second round playoffs to a larger arena in Atlanta (capacity 17,000) and ended up cordoning off the upper level when ticket sales (barely 9,000) overwhelmingly failed to meet their expectations.
I’ll say it again – at what point is the NBA going to stop subsidizing these losers?
At the very least they need to fire the entire upper level of the WNBA administration.
But they won’t.
Just another classic example of Go Woke, Go Broke.
My prediction – while Valhalla is a nice storyline (great coach, great defense, and only their second year in the league) there’s no way the WNBA lets them take out the league’s darling (and Chosen One as the anti-Caitlin) Angel Reese. Just like in the Fever/Aces game 3 final, watch for a lopsided free throw tally in the upcoming games.
