Weekly Review and Rant
Picked up a football unit last week, here’s the breakdown.
NFL Review
My only play was the Denver/Carolina game Under 44′.
With just 1:28 left in the first half there were only 10 points scored and I was looking good. In the final minute and a half Den put up a TD and let Carolina respond with a FG. Suddenly I’m at 27 points instead of 10.
After just seven points in Q3 I’m at 34 points scored, looking good going into Q4.
If you look at the box score you’ll think my bet was lost when the game went Over after Carolina scored a TD with just three minutes left in Q4.
But it was really lost at the 5-minute mark when Denver scored a touchdown to go up by two scores.
If you’re a sports bettor you know what that means, – Denver would play a soft defense because they could give up a TD and still win the game.
And that’s what they did.
Eight yard pass, nine yard pass, seven yard pass, three yard pass, 11 yard pass, five yard pass, etc, etc.
All in all, 12 plays, 64 yards and a Carolina TD.
But it did what Denver wanted to do, they made Carolina use up most of the clock to get the score.
NFL record still profitable at 6-5.
College Football Review
Made two buys, Florida Atlantic +5 at Hm against Texas San Antonio (using the WF1 model, with a record of 8-2) and Georgia State +6 at App State (using the unnamed new play, with a record of 3-6 Fading the Fav.)
WF1 record at Hm now 9-2, 82%.
Unnamed spot now 7-3, 70% when Fading.
Hope to have a couple of these this week.
After pulling a 0-3 last week, the two W’s this week got me back to .500 at 17-17.
(Missed Tuesday night with Ohio so 0-1 so far this week.)
Basketball Update
I started buying basketball plays, posting in the forum.
NBA 0-2.
Kids 2-2.
I have a really strong spot in college.
T1 Unders has a record of 9-19, a 68% Fade.
Today I’m going to do something a little different, a race, me against the inevitability of Reversion Toward the Mean.
FIVE games qualify today starting and I’m going to play a few of them to see if I can bank a unit or two before the record starts to level out.
First up is the noon EST game, Loyola-Chi vs Air Force.
The line opened at 155′ and is currently at 159′, which means I’m breaking one of my Cardinal rules:
Don’t buy any game where the line moved three or more points against you.
I’m in the same mess with the next play, Charleston at Temple.
Opened 153′, now at 158.
So that’s two plays that break one of my rules.
But hey, where’s the fun in life if you can’t break a few rules now and then…
My plays:
Loyola-Chi/AF Ov 159′
Charles/Temp Ov 158
Be sure to check the forum throughout the day if you’re interested in more picks.
FREE as always, because that’s how we roll here at PredictEm!
