California Golden Bears (3-2) 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U at UCLA Bruins (3-2) 3-2 ATS, 0-4 O/U Saturday October 17, 2009 Pasadena, California Rose Bowl (98,000) 3:30 p.m. EST TV: ABC
By Wilson at Predictem.com
Point Spread: California -3.5/UCLA +3.5
Over/Under: 44
The UCLA Bruins will host the Cal Bears this weekend at the Rose Bowl for another Pac-10 showdown. The Bruins are licking their wounds after suffering a loss to Oregon last week in the Rose Bowl 24-10. The game was mainly a defensive stop on both sides until the Ducks finally showed up to play. Oregon came out and scored 21 points in the first 4 minutes of the second half.
The Bruins will be searching for a good win over California this Saturday to avoid slipping too deep in the Pac-10 race. The loss to Oregon left the Bruins 0-2 in the Pac-10 for the first time in ten years.
UCLA will need to figure out their offense quickly if they plan on earning more Ws. They only had 211 total offensive yards and just 66 of those were on the ground. Bruin QB Kevin Prince was 13 of 25 for 81 yards.
The California Bears offense continued to struggle against the Trojans. Cal lost to USC two weeks ago 30-3. If Cal wants to play football after Christmas they really need to get their offense in gear. USC came into the game with a fury and stopped the Bears running game before it could build steam. Jahvid Best was limited to just 47 yards on 14 carries and zero touchdowns.
Bears QB Kevin Riley threw for 199 yards on 15 of 40 passing and 1 interception. Cal has only scored 6 points in their last two outings. The Bears have been averaging 30.4 points per game and allowing 22 to their opponents.
The Bruins are averaging 20 points per game while giving up 17.2 to the oppostion. UCLA showed signs that they had turned the corner early in the season by starting out 3-0 but have since faltered.
Cal is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in October and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games. UCLA is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games. The under 7-1 in Bruins last 8 games in the month of October.
The underdog is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings. The home team is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. If both teams stick to their recent pattern it should be UCLAs turn to win as they have switched off every year dating back to 2001. The last time either team won this annual meeting in back to back years was Cal in 1999 and 2000.
The QB matchup is really anyones game but Californias Riley has the lower completion rate at just under 54 percent.
UCLA holds a 49-29-1 advantage over the Golden Bears. The Bruins are 27-11-1 in games played in Los Angeles. The teams have split the last eight contests each getting the victory on their home field.
The playmaker in this game might just be redshirt junior kicker Kai
Forbath. Forbath is 23 for 23 on kicks of 50 yards or less.
California is desperately searching for a spark on offense as they have only scored six points combined in their last two games after scoring more than 50 twice to open the season. The Bears need to get their playmaker, Jahvid Best, into the action again. Best is one the countrys top backs, and they have got to find a way to use his talents more effectively.
Most bookies have this game Cal -3.5 with the total at 44. I like Cal to recover and break out of their funk.
Wilsons Pick: California 28, UCLA 27. Cal gets the SU win but UCLA covers the 3.5. Luck to ya.
