Bryan Bash

Bash breaks down Arkansas at Missouri as the Razorbacks’ elite offense faces a pace-down environment in Columbia. With Darius Acuff Jr. questionable and Arkansas struggling defensively on the road, Bash sees value on the home Tigers despite the metrics gap.

Bash fades the public perception of #13 Virginia as a dominant home favorite, finding nearly six points of value on a Virginia Tech squad that’s covered nine straight on the road. The model projects Virginia by 5.8, but the market says 11.5—that’s where the edge lives in this ACC rivalry.

Bash breaks down Indiana at Ohio State with the Buckeyes laying 4.5 at home. The adjusted efficiency gap is just 1.2 points, but Indiana’s five-game sweep in the series and superior defensive metrics suggest this spread is inflated by recent narrative over substance.

Bash breaks down Louisville at Miami, where the Cardinals bring a top-12 adjusted net rating into Coral Gables as slight underdogs. The metrics scream Louisville superiority despite Miami’s home record.

The situational spot here heavily favors the visitors. BYU is reeling from defensive breakdowns and the long-term absence of Richie Saunders, while Texas Tech ranks #7 nationally in three-point accuracy. With the Cougars sporting a 5-12 ATS record in conference play, there is zero reason to lay points with the home team in this systematic mismatch.

Tennessee dominated the glass in the first meeting, but Vanderbilt’s #11 national rank in turnover ratio suggests they won’t gift-wrap extra possessions this time around. With Tyler Tanner averaging 19.0 PPG and Duke Miles providing veteran poise, the Commodores have the shooting splits to test a Tennessee team that may be without star freshman Nate Ament.