Cleveland lays 5 at home against an Orlando squad missing Franz Wagner for a third straight game. The Cavaliers just won by 14 on Saturday, and the possessions math favors the home team when you account for Wagner’s 22.2 PPG disappearing from the Magic’s rotation.
Arizona enters as a slim 1.5-point favorite at the Marriott Center. We analyze the pace-of-play battle, the Wildcats’ turnover concerns, and the impact of freshman stars Koa Peat and AJ Dybantsa on tonight’s ATS pick.
The Warriors’ depth is being tested to the limit with Butler and Kuminga out. We analyze how Stephen Curry’s offensive burden affects the ATS pick and why the Timberwolves are positioned for a bounce-back performance at home.
Duke’s laying 7.5 at Cameron Indoor against Louisville, and the efficiency gap suggests this spread is light. The Blue Devils rank #3 in adjusted net efficiency, already beat Louisville by 11 on the road, and now get them at home where their elite defense should dominate.
Detroit lays 13 at home against a Sacramento team that’s 3-18 on the road. The Pistons’ elite defense and balanced scoring create an efficiency gap the Kings can’t overcome, especially with key injuries compromising their rotation depth.
San Antonio lays 12 at home against a depleted Pelicans squad missing Dejounte Murray. The Spurs’ elite two-way play from Wembanyama and Fox should overwhelm New Orleans’ limited depth and poor road execution.
The Thunder are laying 11.5 points at home against a Raptors squad missing Jakob Poeltl and Chucky Hepburn. OKC’s 20-3 home record and elite efficiency make this spread look right—here’s why the Thunder cover comfortably.
Mercyhurst lays 9.5 against winless Chicago State in an NEC matchup that’s all about defensive dominance meeting offensive futility. The efficiency numbers tell a clear story, and Bash breaks down why this spread feels light.
Southern Illinois lays 3.5-4.5 at Evansville, but a 14-point adjusted efficiency gap suggests the market is undervaluing the Salukis. Bryan Bash breaks down why the four-game losing streak is noise and why Evansville’s offensive struggles make this spread a gift.
Memphis lays 3.5 at home against a Jokic-less Denver squad, but the Nuggets’ elite 19-7 road record and Murray’s playmaking ability make them live underdogs against a Grizzlies team that just gave up 133 points at home without Morant available.