Iowa ranks 22nd nationally in effective field goal percentage and has held seven different opponents to 60 points or fewer this season. With Wisconsin struggling to find defensive consistency lately, this matchup comes down to whether the Badgers can outscore a team that specialized in slowing the game to a crawl.
Cleveland enters as a 3.5-point road favorite against an injury-depleted Thunder squad, but the efficiency math tells a different story. Oklahoma City’s elite defense and system execution create a massive 9-point edge against this spread at home.
Michigan State leads the Big Ten in rebounding margin and ranks #1 nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. This means Ohio State will likely get exactly one shot per possession, putting immense pressure on their perimeter players to be nearly perfect in a hostile environment.
The Nuggets are 5.5-point favorites at Chase Center, but Denver’s missing Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson while Jamal Murray is questionable. Golden State’s getting Kristaps Porzingis integrated and defending home court well. The projection has this as a coin flip, giving the Warriors a 5.8-point cushion against the spread. Bash breaks down why the market’s disrespecting Golden State in this spot.
Kansas is laying 10 points at Allen Fieldhouse against Cincinnati, but the Bearcats’ #13 adjusted defense and the market’s respect for their grind game make this number intriguing. Breaking down the efficiency gaps and why Cincinnati +10.5 has value in a rock fight.
Georgia enters this game ranked in the top 25, but they’ve been reeling lately while Texas is playing its best basketball of the season. The Bulldogs give up way too many easy looks near the rim, which is why the Longhorns have landed as Bryan Bash’s best bet to keep this within a bucket.
Kentucky has lost back-to-back games and is just 3-4 on the road this year. While the Tigers have been in a tailspin, playing at Neville Arena is a different beast entirely, which is why they’ve landed as Bryan Bash’s best bet to finally stop the bleeding and cover the short number.
Laying points with UConn on the road has been a losing recipe all year, especially with Villanova’s Duke Brennan averaging a double-double lately. The Wildcats are playing with house money right now, which is why they’ve landed as Bryan Bash’s best bet to keep it tight.
Tennessee visits Vanderbilt in a ranked SEC showdown with the Commodores favored by 4 points at Memorial Gym. The spread makes sense based on efficiency metrics, but the 151 total ignores two top-35 offensive units that can both score in the mid-70s. Bryan Bash breaks down why the over is the play.
BYU is a fun story with AJ Dybantsa, but you don’t beat Iowa State with just one star. The Cougars have failed to cover in five straight home games, which is why the Cyclones have landed as Bryan Bash’s best bet to silence the Marriott Center crowd.