New Orleans is averaging 20+ points behind Tyler Shough, but their league-worst red-zone TD rate remains a hurdle. Discover why the efficiency gap at Nissan Stadium favors the road favorites in a low-total environment.
Bryan Bash
UC Riverside at UCLA Best Bet: Can the Highlanders Survive the Bruins’ Defense?
UCLA’s laying 26.5 at home against UC Riverside, and the adjusted efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Bruins cover big at Pauley Pavilion.
Grambling vs. Ohio State Prediction: Is a 27.5-Point Spread Too High?
The Buckeyes rank 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Grambling struggles at 346th defensively. Discover why the “mismatch math” makes Ohio State a confident ATS pick despite the near four-touchdown line.
Villanova vs. Seton Hall Prediction: Elite Offense Meets Top-10 Defense
Villanova and Seton Hall both sit at 16.2 adjusted net efficiency, but the path to that number tells the real story. Bash breaks down why Seton Hall’s elite defense gives them the edge at home in this Big East showdown.
UCF at FAU Best Bet: Can the Owls Defend the Three-Point Line?
UCF travels to Florida Atlantic as 7.5-point road favorites, and the efficiency numbers support laying the points. Bryan Bash breaks down why FAU’s 358th-ranked three-point defense creates a catastrophic mismatch against UCF’s elite perimeter shooting.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Utah Jazz Prediction: Road Value on a Shorthanded Squad
The Grizzlies are laying 2.5 on the road without Ja Morant, but Utah’s offensive firepower at home makes this line feel stretched. Bash breaks down why the Jazz plus the points is the play.
Pelicans vs Cavaliers Prediction: Cleveland’s Double-Digit Spread Faces Rotation Reality
The Cavaliers are laying 10 points at home against the Pelicans, but without Evan Mobley and facing a New Orleans team riding a five-game winning streak, this spread looks inflated. Bryan Bash breaks down why the points are the play.
Bulls vs Hawks Prediction: Atlanta’s Home Struggles Create Value in a Pace-Up Rematch
The Bulls get +4 in Atlanta after dropping 152 points on the Hawks just two days ago. With Atlanta’s troubling 5-8 home record and Dyson Daniels out, this line overvalues home court in what projects as another high-possession shootout at State Farm Arena.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction: Denver’s Depth Problem Makes This Number Dangerous
The Nuggets are 7-point road favorites in Dallas, but without Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun, their depth issues make this number dangerous. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Mavericks’ home competitiveness and legitimate scoring threats make +7 the play.
Lions vs Vikings Point Spread Prediction for Christmas Day Game
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings (-6) at LA. Sharp money pushing Lions spread higher despite ugly road trends signals quarterback talent gap too.