While the Dolphins turn to Ewers to save a stagnating offense, they face a Cincinnati defense that, while statistically vulnerable, has a history of confusing young quarterbacks. We analyze the point spread and why Joe Burrow’s experience provides the definitive edge in a game where the total has plummeted following the QB change.
While Gardner Minshew takes over at quarterback, the focus shifts to a Kansas City defense that ranks in the top 5 for scoring. We analyze the ATS pick and why Tennessee’s inability to sustain drives makes the Chiefs the more reliable operation in a low-margin environment.
Providence is laying 2.5 at home against 9-1 Seton Hall, but the market is missing the massive defensive gap. Bash breaks down why the Pirates’ suffocating defense and tempo control makes them the play in this Big East clash.
Saint Mary’s lays 13.5 at home against Florida Atlantic, and the efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know. The Gaels rank 19th nationally in adjusted net efficiency while FAU sits at 112th. Bryan Bash breaks down why this spread makes perfect sense.
Wisconsin’s laying 5.5 against Villanova on a neutral court, but the efficiency numbers tell a different story than the spread suggests. Both teams rank nearly identical in adjusted metrics, and Wisconsin’s 315th-ranked defensive rating is being severely underpriced.
The Knicks have covered 13 of 14 home games this season, but they face a 76ers squad that scores over 116 points per game. We break down the total pick and why sharp money is eyeing the under following the news of Towns’ knee injury and Embiid’s potential absence.
Bryan Bash breaks down Thunder vs Timberwolves as Oklahoma City’s 25-2 juggernaut travels to Target Center as 8.5-point favorites. With Anthony Edwards questionable, is this line a trap or an opportunity?
Bryan Bash breaks down Heat vs Celtics with Miami getting 6.5 points at TD Garden. Despite Tyler Herro being out, Norman Powell’s 24.4 PPG and a motivated Heat squad make this spread look soft against a Boston team coming off a home loss to Detroit.
Bryan Bash breaks down Spurs vs Hawks with San Antonio laying just 2 points on the road. With Wembanyama dominating and Atlanta missing Porzingis, this line looks soft. Bash explains why the Spurs’ 8-5 road record and the Hawks’ 5-6 home struggles make this a smash play.
Davidson’s 5.5-point home spread against Temple looks light when you examine the efficiency gap. The Wildcats rank 27th nationally in three-point shooting at 38.8%, while Temple ranks 333rd in three-point defense. Bash breaks down why this strength-on-weakness matchup favors laying the points with the Wildcats.