San Antonio lays 7.5 in Dallas as the Spurs’ efficiency edges meet the Mavericks’ five-game slide. Wembanyama’s size advantage and San Antonio’s ball security create the path to a double-digit road win.
Bryan Bash
Ohio State vs. Maryland Pick: Shooting Efficiency vs. Structural Slump
Ohio State travels to Maryland as 7.5-point favorites, and the efficiency metrics suggest this spread might be light. The Buckeyes rank 38th in adjusted net efficiency while Maryland sits at 198th, creating a significant talent gap that home court might not overcome.
West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Prediction: A Big 12 Defensive Rock Fight
Cincinnati lays 5.5 against West Virginia in a Big 12 defensive slugfest featuring two top-12 adjusted defensive efficiency teams. With both offenses ranked outside the top 220 nationally and a total set at 127.5, this projects as a low-scoring grind where the Under offers the best value.
Hornets vs Rockets Prediction: Charlotte’s Seven-Game Surge Meets Houston’s Home Fortress
Charlotte’s riding seven straight wins, but Houston’s 17-5 at home with a massive rebounding edge. The Rockets’ defensive activity and plus/minus advantage make 3.5 points look generous despite the Hornets’ offensive firepower.
Memphis vs. UAB Pick: Ball Security vs. Interior Dominance
UAB sits as a small favorite against Memphis in an American Athletic Conference grinder. The efficiency numbers say these teams are nearly identical, but the Blazers’ defensive edge and home court could be the difference in a low-possession battle.
76ers vs Lakers Prediction: Philly’s Five-Game Win Streak Meets West Coast Test
The Lakers lay 4 points at home against a surging Sixers squad riding five straight wins, but Embiid’s questionable status creates uncertainty. Bash breaks down why Philadelphia’s rebounding edge and Maxey’s All-NBA play make the points too valuable to pass up.
William & Mary vs. UNCW Prediction: Track Meet vs. Trask Trap
William & Mary travels to face UNC Wilmington in a CAA rematch with UNCW laying 4.5 points at home. The Tribe already won this matchup three weeks ago, and the efficiency numbers suggest they’re the better team despite the records. This tempo clash between the 6th-ranked pace team and a grinding Seahawks squad creates betting value on the road dog.
Warriors vs Suns Prediction: Curry’s Load Gets Heavier in Phoenix
Golden State’s roster looks more like a G-League squad after the Butler injury and Kuminga trade rumors, yet the market is only giving them 6.5 points. With Grayson Allen and Dillon Brooks leading the charge for a Booker-less Suns team, this game will be decided by the role players. Read our full betting preview to see why the free pick lands on the home favorite.
Penn State vs. Michigan Pick: Can No. 2 Wolverines Cover a Massive Spread?
Michigan lays 24.5 points against Penn State in a matchup that pits the nation’s #1 adjusted net efficiency against a Nittany Lions team that’s lost four of five. The efficiency gap and interior dominance make this spread look justified.
Texas A&M vs. Alabama Pick: Efficiency Mismatch vs. Bucky Ball Momentum
Alabama lays 7.5 at home against Texas A&M in an SEC showdown featuring two elite offenses. The Crimson Tide’s pace and efficiency advantages should overwhelm the Aggies’ porous defense despite Texas A&M’s four-game winning streak.