2023 Academy Awards Betting Analysis & Picks
95th Academy Awards
Date/Time: Sunday, March 12th, 2023 8:00 PM EST
Where: Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, CA
TV: ABC
With the Academy Awards right around the corner, below is a rundown of each of the nominees up for the four main acting awards along with Best Picture. For those in Oscar pools, picks are also included for all 23 of the major awards. Odds in parentheses are provided by Bovada.
BEST ACTOR
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Odds- (-180)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Trends- 16 of the last 18 Screen Actor’s Guild and 15 of the last 19 Critics’ Choice Award winners for Best Actor have gone on to win the Oscar as well. Fraser already won both.
Random- Started his career in the early 90s as the title character in the surprisingly successful movie Encino Man, which is made all the more impressive considering it starred Pauly Shore in the lead role.
Other movies to consider- School Ties, a movie based upon the experiences of famed TV writer Dick Wolf, also features the first legit roles of Ben Affleck and Matt Damon, with the latter playing the anti-Semitic villain in the story
Austin Butler, Elvis
Odds- (+130)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Trends- Only two of the last four Oscar winners for Best Actor also won a Golden Globe for the same award in the same year. This is all the odder considering there are two Globes handed out each year for acting, one for drama and one for comedy/musical. This year Butler won for drama, and Colin Farrell won for Musical/Comedy.
Random- Butler would be the thirteenth person to win an Oscar for playing a real-life musician and the second in four years to win Best Actor after Rami Malek took home the award after portraying Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody.
Other movies to consider- Definitely not Yoga Hosers, a supposed-to-be thriller that stars Johnny Depp and Kevin Smith’s daughters, in which the true horror is the nepotism that allowed this pile of garbage to be made in the first place.
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Odds- (+1400)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Trends- Looking to join Daniel Day-Lewis as the second-ever Irish actor or actress to win an Academy Award for a lead role.
Random- Previously costarred with Brendan Gleeson in the 2008 Oscar-nominated for best screenplay In Bruges.
Other movies to consider- Seven Psychopaths, Horrible Bosses, and The Gentleman.
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Odds- (+3500)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Trends- At 27 years old would be the youngest Best Actor winner in Oscar history and is the eleventh youngest nominee ever.
Random- This is the first time in 88 years that all five nominees are up for Best Actor on their initial attempt.
Other movies/TV shows to watch- Mescal has only four movies to his acting credit, so I’ll go with Gladiator 2, the sequel to the Ridley Scott classic that comes out in 2024. With Scott involved as director, there is at least some hope that it won’t fall victim to the awful sequel curse that seems to happen when it comes out over a decade after the original (i.e., The Godfather Part III, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, Blues Brothers 2000, Dumb and Dumber To, Zoolander 2, Space Jam: A New Legacy).
Bill Nighy, Living
Odds- (+6000)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Trends- Only twice in the past twenty years has the person who won Best Actor also gone on to be part of the movie that won Best Picture (Colin Firth in the King’s Speech and Jean Dujardin in The Artist). The movies for three of the five nominated for Best Actor are not up for Best Picture.
Random- At 73, is the oldest performer to receive a first-time nomination for Best Actor and the sixth oldest nominee in history.
Other movies to consider- Shaun of the Dead, the best zombie romantic comedy ever, and Hot Fuzz.
BEST ACTRESS –
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Odds- (-140)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Trends- The SAG and Golden Globe award winner for Best Actress has gone on to win the Oscar in eight of the last ten years. Yeoh already won both.
Random- A movie has won both Best Actress and Best Picture in the same year just once since 2004. Everything Everywhere All at Once is heavily favored to win Best Picture this year.
Fun action movies to consider- Supercop with Jackie Chan and Bond movie Tomorrow Never Dies.
Cate Blanchett, TAR
Odds- (EVEN)
Past Oscar wins (2)- Best Actress-Elizabeth, Best Actress-Blue Jasmine
Past Oscar nominations (5): Best Supporting Actress-The Aviator, Best Supporting Actress-Notes on a Scandal, Best Supporting Actress- I’m Not There, Best Actress- Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Best Actress- Carol
Trends- Has appeared in 10 Best Picture nominees, just one behind the all-time leader Robert De Niro.
Random- One of twelve performers to have been nominated for two Oscars for acting in the same year after pulling off the feat in 2007.
Other movies to consider- Hanna, as the villain attempting to hunt down Saoirse Ronan’s title character, and Thor: Ragnarok, the funniest superhero movie ever
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Odds- (+2500)
Past Oscar wins- none
Past Oscar nominations (4): Best Supporting Actress- Brokeback Mountain, Best Actress- Blue Valentine, Best Actress- My Week with Marilyn , Best Supporting Actress- Manchester by the Sea
Trends- If the odds are correct, Williams has little chance of taking home an Oscar and in doing so will join a list of seven actors that have been nominated for at least five Academy Awards without getting a win. Glenn Close and Peter O’Toole are tied for the most with eight.
Random- Has the most Oscar nominations of any actor born in the 80s.
Other movies to consider- The Station Agent
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Odds- (+2500)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Random- Earned a surprise nomination for the lesser known To Leslie after a controversial marketing campaign using Hollywood celebrity influence amongst the voters that are now being investigated by the Academy as a possible lobbying violation.
Other movies/tv to consider- Bloodline (mainly season 1) and Black Mirror.
Ana De Armas Blonde
Odds- (+4000)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Trends- Blonde is the 23rd movie to be nominated for both an Academy Award and Golden Raspberry Award in the same year after it was put up for eight total Razzies, including Worst Picture, Worst Director, and Worst Screenplay.
Random- First actor ever nominated for an NC-17-rated movie.
Other movies/tv to consider- War Dogs and Knives Out.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Odds- (-3000)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Trends- Quan has already won the SAG, Critics Choice, and Golden Globe awards for Best Supporting Actor. The last ten times the same person won all three awards, they also went on to take home the Academy Award as well.
Random- His first two roles were in huge 80s movies, first as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, followed a year later as Data in Goonies.
Random- Quan joins Brendon Fraser as the second cast member of Encino Man to be nominated for an Oscar in 2022.
Other movies/tv shows to consider for nostalgia only- 90’s television show Head of the Class and the music video to Cyndi Lauper’s The Goonies ‘R” Good Enough for me.
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Odds- (+1200)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Random- Won an Emmy for Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie in 2009 for Into the Storm and is nominated for another this year for State of the Union.
Other movies to consider- Braveheart, Michael Collins, Gangs of New York.
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Odds- (+1200)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Random- The Banshees of Inisherin is the 22nd movie in Oscar history to have two performers from the same movie get the nomination for Best Supporting Actor, and either Keoghan or Gleeson will be looking to become the eighth one of the group to end up winning the award.
Other movie to consider- Dunkirk.
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Odds- (+2000)
Past Oscar wins- none
Past Oscar nominations (1): Best Supporting Actor- Ordinary People
Trends- At age 87 would surpass Anthony Hopkins as the oldest performer ever to win an Oscar for acting if he were to upset Ke Huy Quan for the award.
Random- Now has the Academy Award record for longest time between nominations at 42 years.
Other TV shows to consider- Taxi, Dear John, The Goldbergs, Big Mouth
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Odds- (+3500)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Random- Is the second consecutive actor from an Apple TV+ original to be nominated for Best Supporting Actor after Troy Kotsur won last year for CODA.
Other movies/tv to consider- Bullet Train, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, BoJack Horseman.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Odds- (+130)
Past Oscar wins- none
Past Oscar nominations (1): Best Actress- What’s Love Got to Do With It
Trends- The winner of the Critic’s Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress has won the Emmy in 12 of the last 13 years. Bassett won the award in January.
Random-Is the first person to receive an acting nomination from the Marvel cinematic universe.
Other movies to consider- F/X, Boyz n the Hood, The Score.
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Odds- (+150)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Trends-Prior to her victory at the SAG awards, Curtis was a distant third in the Best Supporting Actress rankings at +1200. The winner of the SAG award for Best Supporting Actress has won the Oscar in 12 of the last 13 years.
Random- Both of her parents (Tony Curtis for The Defiant Ones and Janet Leigh for Psycho) also received Oscar nominations. Laura Dern and Liza Minnelli are the only others who can boast the same.
Other movies/TV shows to consider- Trading Places, A Fish Called Wanda, New Girl, Archer.
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Odds- (+225)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Random- Is the second consecutive Irish actress to be nominated for Supporting accolades after Jessie Buckley was up for The Lost Daughter a year ago. Condon is hoping to become the second of an overall seven to take home the award along with Brenda Fricker for My Left Foot in 1989.
Other movies/TV shows to consider- Ray Donovan, Better Call Saul.
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Odds- (+1400)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Random- This is the first time in Oscar history that two woman of Asian descent were nominated for Best Supporting Actress. 1984 was the only year that two Asian men were up for Best Supporting Actor, with Haing S. Ngor eventually winning the award for The Killing Fields against nominees, including Pat Morita for the Karate Kid.
Other movies to consider- Poker Face.
Hong Chau, The Whale
Odds- (+2500)
Past Oscar wins/nominations- None
Random- One of three actors nominated for a supporting award this year that has guest voiced roles on the highly recommended BoJack Horseman.
Other movies to consider- Inherent Vice.
BEST PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Odds- (-1250)
Trends- Leads all movies with 11 nominations total. The film, up for the most awards, has gone on to win Best Picture just once in the last seven years.
All Quiet on the Western Front
Odds- (+1000)
Trends- This marks the fifth consecutive year that a Best Picture nominee was a non-English language film and also the first time ever for one to be in German.
The Banshees of Inirhserin
Odds- (+1200)
Trends- The winner of Best Original Screenplay has also won Best Picture 13 times in the last 50 years including twice in the last four (Green Book and Parasite). Banshees is favored to win for Original Screenplay.
Top Gun – Maverick
Odds- (+1600)
Trends- The Best Picture nominee with the highest Rotten Tomatoes score has gone on to win the award only five times in the 94-year history of the Oscars. Top Gun- Maverick just beat The Banshees of Inirhserin to have the highest average rating of all the nominees.
The Fabelmans
Odds- (+3300)
Trends- The Fabelmans is the twelfth Steven Spielberg-directed movie to earn a Best Picture nomination, though somehow only once (Schindler’s List) has the legendary icon seen his movie go on to win for tops in film.
TAR
Odds- (+4000)
Trends- Up until CODA’s victory last year, no movie had ever won Best Picture with a fully capitalized title. TAR will hope to defy the odds and make it back-to-back years with an all-caps victory.
Elvis
Odds- (+8000)
Trends- Only twice in the last 20 years has the movie that had the winner for Best Actor also taken home the award for Best Picture. Austin Butler is a close second to Brandon in the odds to win Best Actor.
Avatar-The Way of Water
Odds- (+10000)
Trends- This is the first time in 31 years that the two highest grossing films were nominated for Best Picture, with the Avatar and Top Gun sequels gaining nods. In 1982, the top two of Tootsie and ET both eventually lost to Gandhi.
Women Talking
Odds- (+10000)
Trends- Up until four years ago, only four movies have ever won Best Picture in which their directors were not nominated for Best Director. Since, both Green Book and CODA took home the award. The directors for Women Talking, along with Elvis, Avatar, Top Gun-Maverick, and All Quiet on the Western, were not nominated for Best Director this year.
Triangle of Sadness
Odds- (+10000)
Trends- Looking to become the first movie with a shape in the title to win Best Picture.
OSCAR POOL PICKS
- Best Actor – Brendan Fraser, The Whale
- Best Actress – Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Best Adapted Screenplay – Women Talking
- Best Animated Feature Film – Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Best Animated Short Film – The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
- Best Cinematography – All Quiet on the Western Front
- Best Costume Design – Elvis
- Best Director – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Best Documentary Feature – Navalny
- Best Documentary Short – The Elephant Whispers
- Best Film Editing – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Best International Feature Film – All Quiet on the Western Front
- Best Live Action Short Film – An Irish Goodbye
- Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Elvis
- Best Original Score – Babylon
- Best Original Screenplay – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Best Original Song – Naatu Naatu, RRR
- Best Picture – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Best Production Design – Babylon
- Best Sound – Top Gun: Maverick
- Best Supporting Actor – Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Best Supporting Actress – Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Best Visual Effects – Avatar: The Way of Water
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