Atlanta Dream at Dallas Wings
Mark Your Calendar
On Monday, I called your attention to two games (Sea/Con and NY/Dallas) on the schedule that fit a strong play on the Over (10-6) for teams who are in Gm 2 of B2B’s.
I only played one of them, Sea/Con.
I chose that one because it graded out as the stronger of the two as it also qualified for two additional trends I track that had winning records.
The Connecticut game went Over by 29 points, the Dallas game only went Over by one point, so I ‘capped it correctly as to which had the higher possible percentage of winning.
But they both won, so I should have played them both.
How did I know there were two games that qualified on Monday?
Because I keep a calendar, and I mark it with notes so I don’t miss a play.
That’s how I know the next time this spot pops up is today, Wednesday, July 30.
Keep a calendar so you don’t miss any plays!
Atlanta goes on the road to play the Dallas Wings tonight. After Monday’s Sea/Con and NY/Dallas games, the Over in B2B games is now 12-6, 67%.
Even better, when you look at the subcategory of Hm/Rd, B2B teams are 7-1 to the Over on the Rd.
And when you look at B2B teams who played Game 1 at home and were on the road for Game 2, the record is 2-1 for Overs.
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These two have met twice this season.
The combined scores were 158 and 123, numbers that don’t favor an Over in tonight’s game, especially when you factor in that it’s at 166.
And tonight’s number doesn’t look much better when you see that Atlanta games average 162 PPG and Dallas is at 168 PPG.
But I’ve uncovered one more stat that puts me on the Over tonight, regardless of any of the standard stats:
When Gm 1 of B2B’s was an Under, Gm 2 has a record of 7-3, 70%, on Overs.
And the Atlanta game last night was an Under.
When to Buy Recommendation:
The game opened at 165, a number that’s already too high based on H2H history and PPG season averages this season. It’s up to 166’/167′ now, with plenty of houses still showing 166′, so that’s what I’ll use here.
My play:
Atlanta/Dal Ov 166′
Recap: 1-1
Record: 21-21
Review: I banked the Over in the Sea/Con game. I thought I had a soft number to take advantage of in Fiebich points over 9′ prop, and I was correct – after I saw that the Seattle game was on pace for an easy Over I went to bump my Fiebich bet up just a little bit and saw that the books corrected the number and moved it to 10′.
She landed on 9, missed by a hook.
Not her fault, though; it was Natasha Cloud’s. Midway Q4 Fiebich was at the head of the pack on a fast break, one defender trailing her by four feet, Natasha Cloud behind the defender bringing the ball up court. Instead of an easy lobb to get Feibiche an easy layup, Cloud tried a bounce pass that was behind Fibby and the defender tipped it away.
It’s the kind of loss I don’t mind, though. It was exciting, and I got some fun and action out of it all the way to the end.
