Over the last seven weeks, I’ve been in two different countries and four different states, on a mixed trip of business and pleasure.
I’ve had to deal with airlines, hotels, taxis, and Ubers.
While I was in Costa Rica, I had limited access to the internet, phone service, and TV. (But I had unlimited access to friends and family, and yellowfin tuna, so it was worth the hassle of traveling.)
Even after arriving back in the states, I’ve had limited access to my sports betting database and the time to access it, update it, and use it for making bets.
I’ve been dealing with banks, utility companies, furniture stores, cable companies, etc.
But I’m finally settled now, back in Las Vegas for at least a year. And it’s time to get back to my Battle with the Books.
College Review:
I bet four sides, no totals.
I bet AGAINST Middle Tennessee State, Missouri, and Massachusetts, using my Asterisk Play.
First up was a weeknight game with Missouri State -2. Ended up with a very frustrating push, screwed by a missed field goal and a missed extra point.
In the early game on Saturday morning, ‘Bama blew a late lead, and I ended up with a push at -3.
It could have been worse.
Anticipating the line would go up, I bought it early at -3.
It closed at -3’.
In the third game, Kent State beat the crap out of Massachusetts and banked a unit for me.
In the nightcap, I relied on one of my handicapping models for picking Wrong Favorites.
Going into the week, WF1 had a record of 8-16 overall; 3-5 on Hm teams, 5-11 on Rd teams.
I had two games to choose from: Fading either Michigan or Utah State.
I chose Hawaii to beat Utah State but it didn’t matter, both WF’s lost and the Fade was profitable again.
I haven’t done this week’s handicapping yet, but I hope I have a few Asterisk Plays and WF2 spots to Fade this week (haven’t done my handicapping yet, starting it after I write this.)
A 2-0 week, with two pushes.
The week wasn’t without mistakes though.
I miss the Rutgers game as an NP Under play on Friday night, and the game stayed Under, costing me a win because I didn’t have time to handicap the card properly.
But here’s where experience came into play and kept the problem from getting worse.
I don’t like betting on a play after I missed a game and it won. Saturday, the Air Force game had a line change, and it qualified for NP Under.
But instinct and experience told me, “Don’t jump on a play you missed the day before.”
The total on AF/UNLV was 64′.
They combined for 99 points.
Play went 1-1 but if I jumped on the second one after missing the first I would have taken a loss.
Instinct, and experience.
NFL Review
I only bet one game.
Fading a Rd team in my WF1 model worked well in college so I looked to use it in the NFL, too.
WF1 in the NFL was 11-17 overall, and 8-13 when it said the Rd team should be the Fav instead of the Hm team the books put up as the Fav.
Two teams qualified as WF1’s, Seattle and Detroit.
Fading Seattle meant I’d have to bet on the Jaguars, fresh off that lucky, last minute win against the Chiefs last week.
No thanks. I was pretty sure karma was going to be paying them a visit (well, maybe not just karma, the Jags are a mediocre squad at best).
Okay, I admit, not betting against Seattle may have been part of my decision since I’m a Seahawks fan.
Anyway, the final score was Hawks 20, Jags 12, so good call laying off fading The Hawks.
Betting against Detroit looked better to me, despite a lot of stats that favored them.
And the Chiefs took advantage of a beat up Lion team and came away with the win for me there.
A 3-0 week.
I’m in my new home.
I’m settled in.
And I’m hot.
And not just “Coming off a 3-0 week” kind of hot.
In a recent article, I wrote about how there’s a flow to life, when things are going well, everything tends to go well, but when it rains, it pours.
I felt real good going into Sunday night’s KC game.
Not just because of the 2-0 Saturday but because I got in a little poker time on Sunday morning.
Got pocket eights.
A third eight showed up on the flop.
No help on the turn.
The river?
The fourth eight.
Not only took chips from the three other players who stayed in to the end of the hand, but I hit the high hand bonus.
$500.00
And because I know there is a “flow” to life I knew KC was going to bank me another unit that night.
NEXT!
