Former sportsbook manager RBD breaks down his Week 9 performance across college football, NFL, and NBA — sharing lessons on selectivity, discipline, and finding edges.
Weekly Review
I managed to maneuver my way through the weekly minefield of betting options and come out with a profit.
By being selective.
While running a sportsbook on the Vegas Strip I learned a lot of valuable lessons, most of them geared towards what NOT to do.
For example, one of the most common mistakes sports bettors make is to look at games they don’t have a bet on as missed opportunities to make money.
That’s backward thinking.
The general consensus is that 95% of sports bettors lose.
I’ll back that up with personal experience.
I had access to my casino/hotel’s database, and approximately 95% of players had negative balances.
This weekend I saw an article where a Director of Race and Sports said that 99% of sports bettors lose, according to his database.
I can’t verify those numbers, but I can tell you that if they are off, they’re not off by much.
Looking at every game as a missed opportunity for profit if you don’t bet them is one of the reasons most bettors lose.
Do the opposite — look at every game as a possible loss of your money and be selective in the games you pick.
Put in the time to handicap to the best of your ability.
Do your research.
And don’t bet on too many games.
There were approximately 66 college and pro football games played last week. I had four picks in my articles — two college, two pro — and one forum play.
I bought and gave out 5 plays from 66 games.
THAT is being selective.
College Football Recap
My two article plays lost.
Arizona State was a no-show.
They fell behind early and were never competitive.
Can I learn anything from it?
I think I may have bet on Arizona State earlier this season. I’m going to go back to my database and search for it because if I did and I lost that game too, I’ll likely avoid using them in future bets since I don’t seem to have a good read on them.
When you lose a bet, don’t just shrug it off and move on to looking for your next one.
Study your losses!
See if there’s anything you can learn to eliminate future losses.
My Ark State Over 59½ bet lost.
With under a minute to go in the game, Ark St was up by 7 and the total was sitting on 55.
The Red Wolves were deep in the red zone, 4th and one.
In football these days, college AND pro, who DOESN’T go for it on 4th and one?
I’ll tell you who — the Red Wolves head coach Butch Jones.
He kicks the FG to go up by two scores and the game lands on 58.
I lose by a point and a half.
But I started the day off with a winner in the early morning game.
Looking over my database I saw that T2 totals were sitting at 8-4, 67% on Unders.
I had three to choose from.
I bought the Bowling Green/Kent State game and recommended it in the PredictEm Forum.
The play won.
I had two other games, afternoon starts, from the same play that I used on BG/K St Under.
I could have played one, or both, or none.
Here’s how I looked at the day — I had one win already banked and two picks left from my homepage article, Az St -7 and Ark St Over.
I thought I’d be good for a split at worst case which would give me a 2-1 day, a profitable day.
Worst case, 1-2 and I still have my Sunday games left. So I didn’t play the other two Unders.
Both went Over.
BE SELECTIVE.
Don’t look at every game you don’t bet as money you might be leaving on the table.
NFL Recap
First up, NYG at Philadelphia.
I NAILED THAT SUCKER.
My three reasons for taking Philly were dead on, and the Giants played as expected.
After my 1-2 college play, the Eagles win put me at 2-2 for my football week. Victory or defeat, plus or minus in my betting account, would be decided by the Sunday night game, GB at Pittsburgh.
I took Green Bay based on the NFC vs AFC stat (25-12, 68% ATS) and because it qualified as a Fade for one of my Wrong Favorite spots.
There were EIGHT AFC/NFC matchups to choose from this week.
I played and recommended only one of them — Green Bay.
And the AFC went 7-1 ATS versus NFC, as Reversion Towards the Mean came roaring back with a vengeance.
The only NFC team that covered?
Green Bay.
Was it skill on my part, picking the only one that covered?
Of course not.
Well, in part yes, but in sports betting, a certain degree of luck is always involved.
The skill part came into play because I do the work.
I broke the 25-12 down into subcategories looking to improve my edges.
What I discovered was that the highest winning percentage came on NFC Rd Favorites.
This put me on the Packers as small Rd Favs of -3.
Regular Season Wins Update
It was another perfect week, with Mississippi winning and the New York Giants losing.
The Rebels were Rd dogs at 13th-ranked Oklahoma.
It was the kind of game that Kiffin critics said he typically loses.
Final score, Mississippi 34-26.
This was a HUGE win for my Over 8½ bet.
They have seven wins, with four games left, including The Citadel.
That means I only need one more win from South Carolina and Florida (both home games for Ole Miss) or a Rd game at Mississippi State.
I’m not counting my chickens yet, but I am dusting off my abacus.
The Giants loss was twice as sweet as their usual losses are because I also used it as a recommended play in my Sunday article.
They’re sitting right where I thought they’d be — last place in the NFC East at 2-6 (for the significance of an NFL team finishing in last place see my article dated August 27th, which has some interesting stats and details on a play using last-place teams for Regular Season Wins bets.)
To beat me, the Giants have to go 4-5 over their remaining nine games.
Possible, yes, but unlikely.
And losing their spark plug Skattebo to a season-ending injury in the Philadelphia game only hurts their chances.
NBA Recap
Even though the season is young, and I don’t have a significant amount of data accumulated yet, I made my first NBA bet of the season on Thursday night, using one of my three models (T2) for picking Ov/Un’s.
The play was 0-4, and I figured I’d jump on it to see if I could squeeze one more Fade out of it.
The T2 play was Den/GS Un 233½.
I played the Over.
The game landed on 268. (Yes, it went into OT, but it didn’t matter — the game was an Over at the end of regulation time.)
I declined Fading any other T2 Under spots, and it’s a good thing I did — they went 3-1 over the next four games that qualified.
Overall, a 4-2 week.
BEING SELECTIVE.
And grinding out a profit.
NEXT!
