Not much to rant about this week.
It was another of those “hamster in a wheel” weeks — did a lot of work but not getting anywhere.
No ground gained or lost.
NFL Recap
I missed with a forum pick on the Dallas/Detroit game to stay Under 55½.
Last I checked they were at 70-something and still scoring.
Got the unit back with my weekly article pick on Green Bay. I narrowed my Sunday dance card down to three spots:
- Playing AGAINST the Jets, who had won five straight ATS.
- Playing AGAINST Cincinnati in one of my WF spots.
- Playing AGAINST Chicago in the same WF spot.
I didn’t trust the spot AGAINST the Jets because all the games I had tracked in the “five straight ATS” system were Dogs, and I didn’t trust the Dolphins as Favs, especially on the Rd.
But they won easily.
Good move not trusting Buffalo with the spread as Cincinnati covered.
And I got a win by a hook with the Packers.
So instead of 2-1, I went 1-0 on Sunday, banking a full unit instead of .9.
As for my Regular Season Wins bet on the Giants Under 5½, New York actually made it through the week without taking a loss.
But only because they were on a bye.
They have two wins.
They have four games left.
They need to go perfect 4-0 to beat me.
Not bloody likely!
College Recap
I missed with my Forum play, using James Madison in their championship game. It didn’t fit any of the systems I use — I tried to use a model that I have for Bowl games, but it didn’t work out.
The Dukes didn’t show up until the 4th quarter, winning by 17 when I needed 23.
But, same as the pros, my weekly article pick got me back to even as Georgia destroyed Alabama in the SEC title game.
The College Football Regular Season Has Ended
Full recap:
Articles: 20-20
Forum: 21-16
Total: 41-37
So, a success. Sort of.
Season Goals Recap
For new readers, I’ll restate my goals as noted in my very first article here June 1st, 2024:
Goal Number One: Do Not Lose Money
Some will say, “What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!”
It’s called a realistic goal.
Fact is, MOST bettors lose.
Estimates have it as high as 98% (except on the internet, where 98% of bettors say they win.)
So, as the physicians’ creed goes, “Primum non nocere” — “First, do no harm” — in this case, to my bankroll.
A goal of finishing in the 5–8% of people who DON’T lose money is an admirable accomplishment in this game.
Goal Number Two: Finish the Season with a Profit
Any profit.
Goal Number Three: The Grail – 67%
In any endeavor in life you should always have a goal that’s difficult to reach — one you have to work hard at to achieve.
It builds character. It builds strength.
A win percentage of 67% is a lofty goal when you consider that to finish with a profit, a sports bettor needs to hit 54% of his plays.
And remember — 98% of bettors can’t hit 54%.
Goal Number Four: HAVE FUN!
I hit three of my four goals, but the season was a letdown. College football is where I use my largest betting unit and where I usually make some good coin.
Last year I finished the regular season at 19-8 (70%), hitting all four goals. With only 27 picks in the regular season I was much more selective last year — something to remember for next season.
Looking Back at the Numbers
I finished the regular season with about a unit of profit. Making my performance even more pitiful is the fact that I had the tools to work with.
Look at some of these numbers:
- WF1: 25-41, a 62% Fade.
- T2 totals went 8-14 for 67% Fade on Overs and 16-8 for a 67% play ON Unders.
- And worst of all, I didn’t do what I said I would at the beginning of the season and rely on my best play, the NP Under. It dipped below .500 early in the season, and — ye of little faith — I abandoned it for a week or two.
It finished the year at 11-5, 68%.
Six-year total is now 151-91, 62%!
That is a handicapping system that has staying power.
To say nothing of the NP Over going 6-12, a 67% Fade — another profitable spot that I didn’t use properly.
In Summary
I played too many games and did a lousy job picking my spots in the ones I did use.
Fortunately, it’s only the regular season that’s finished.
It’s time to go bowling — and hopefully build a little profit to finish the season on a good note.
