WNBA Player Prop, Brittney Griner
Hard choices to make today.
Only two games on the schedule but I have a play on one of my handicapping models for totals.
T2 says the game between the Sun and the Storm goes Over.
T2 has a record of 7-4 on Overs this season.
AND it also fits a subcategory that I used for a play in the PredictEm forum two days ago on the Sea/Con game to go Over.
It was 5-0 at the time, after a W on Sea/Con it’s now at 6-0.
So I have a 7-4 spot and a 6-0 spot, both screaming to take the Over.
But . . .
Seattle is a double-digit favorite, at home.
DD Favs at Hm are 12-12-1 ATS, and 8-18 on Overs.
Normally, I would go with my handicapping systems, but 8-18 is a 70% Fade, and a powerful deterrent to keep me off my two models. (Or not? Check the PredictEm forum later today in case I change my mind and buy the Over.)
Anyway, thought I’d include the stats above in case anyone’s looking for angles on playing the total on that game.
So, where am I going for my action today?
To the NBA.
Just kidding, it’s a WNBA play, but there is this:
On Tuesday, I had the Atlanta Dream game on but was only paying half attention. I heard a man’s voice.
I thought they were interviewing an NBA star who was in the audience. Looked up at the TV and . . .
It was Griner.
I did a double-take, thought my eyes and ears were deceiving me. I never heard her speak before, but now that I have, I believe that, as Austin Powers would say,. . .
But I digress.
Back to today’s play.
I bought Brittney Griner Over 4′ rebounds.
A little pricey at -137, but I think she can get this number in this spot.
She’s had five or more rebounds in three of her last five games.
The two where she fell short she landed on four, missing tonight’s number by a hook.
And she’s had five or more rebounds in five of her last 10 games, with four of the five that she missed landing on 4.
So at 4′ the number is easily doable, which explains the higher juice.
I
also like the fact that the Caitlin’s are in town.
No matter how much the WNBA pretends it’s not true, there is no denying it – Clark is despised by many players in the league, due to pettiness, envy, and, yes . . . racism.
They play with extra motivation when they’re facing her and do all they can to beat her team on the scoreboard, and to beat her up on the court.
Think I’m exaggerating about that little extra motivation?
The Dream has faced the Fever three times already this season.
Date/minutes played/Griner rebounds:
5/20, 31 min, 8 rebounds
5/22, 25 min, 7 rebounds
6/10, 15 min, 4 rebounds.
Griner averages 5.5 rebounds per game.
Against the Caitlin’s she grabbed 8 and 7.
The only time she didn’t hit tonight’s number of 4′ she only missed by the hook.
But the key stat is in playing time.
Look at the difference in the minutes played.
The only time she didn’t surpass 4′ was when she played only 15 minutes.
She’s going to play more than 15 minutes tonight. Over her last five games, she’s averaging 22 minutes of court time, the same number over her last 10 games.
My play:
Griner Over 4′ rebounds
Recap: 1-1
Record: 14-15
Review:
I had Chicago -1, they won by 11 points.
My other play was Over 165′ in the same game.
First three quarters, points scored:
37, 45, 51, an average of 43 points per quarter.
Going into Q4 I only needed 33 points.
Easy winner, right?
Scoring slowed down in the fourth, but with 3 minutes left on the clock (2:58 to be exact), I only needed three more points to get the win.
Piece of cake, right?
There were three other games on the card that day. Here’s what they scored in the final three minutes of their games:
Sea/Con 11, GS/Ind 10, Min/Phx 10.
An average of 10 points each game.
Dal Chi final 3 minutes?
Zero points scored.
ZERO!!!
Including five, FIVE missed three-point shots, any one of which would have won my bet.
I lost by 2′.
I’m not saying it was a bad beat, I’m just saying it sucked.
