I gained more ground in Week Eleven of my Battle with the Books, going 4-1 on picks from my articles.
NFL Recap, 2-0
Game 1:
San Francisco -3?
Nailed it!
A mere 15 seconds into the game, the Niners had my spread covered already after McCaffrey scored a TD.
They never looked back, winning 41-22, covering by 16 points.
That spot, WF1, was 3-11 on Hm teams going into play on Sunday, a 78% Fade.
It was 2-1 on the week, now 5-12 on the season, still a solid 70% Fade.
Game 2:
Balt/Cle Over 38?
Banked it.
Not as easy as the San Fran win, but still ended up as money in the bank.
I was sitting pretty with 26 points at halftime, needing only 13 in the second half to get a W.
A scoreless third quarter had me concerned but a 13-point Q4 got me exactly what I needed to squeeze by with a one point W.
That spot, T1 Under, was 2-7 going into play on Sunday. The Bal/Cle game was the only one that qualified. It’s now 2-8, an 80% Fade.
This pick also highlighted the importance of reading line movement and knowing when to buy.
It opened as high as 44, but anticipating it would drop I posted the pick with a “Wait to Buy recommendation.”
It closed as low as 37′; I used 38 because it was the WAN, and I only use lines that most bettors can get.
It does no one any good (other than their own ego trip) when ‘cappers give out lines that aren’t readily available to most bettors.
Anyone who bought it early, with the numbers from 44 to 40, lost.
Knowing WHEN to buy is as important as knowing WHAT to buy.
Going into week 12, I’m sitting at 8-4 in my NFL article picks. That’s 67%, the Holy Grail, the highmark I aim for.
College Recap, 2-1
Started out the day with an L, as Arkansas couldn’t cover the -4′ spread, winning by one.
It was a bitter pill to swallow.
LSU had the ball, 3rd and 3, on the Arkansas 23 yard line, just over a minute left in the game.
LSU running back Harlem Berry breaks through the D line for a 13-yard gain.
He had a clear path to the pylon but . . .
he slides to the ground, knowing the Razorbacks had no timeouts left and the victory was sealed.
A clear act of put-the-team-first, selflessness at a moment when I needed a selfish, me, Me, ME! kind of guy.
That’s the second time in the last three weeks I got screwed that way.
The Western Michigan QB did it to me too, sliding on the 4-yard line to end the game when he had a clear path to the end zone ahead of him.
So I’m 0-1 for the day but no worries, I’ve got two strong plays left on my dance card.
First up, my best performer, the NP Under.
Only one game qualified, Marsh/Geo St Un.
I screwed up and waited too long to buy it, missing out on 63 and getting it at 62′.
Didn’t matter though – the game landed on 48, clearing the bar by 14 points.
Here’s an updated look at the NP Under:
2020: 28-4, 87% (yes, 87%, publicly documented)
2021: 34-21, 63%
2022: 34-32, 51%
2023: 21-17, 55%
2024: 23-16, 63%
Combined total: 140-87, 61%
2025: 10-5, 67%.
Six year total: 150-92, 62%.
Six years.
62%.
This system laughs in the face of Reversion Towards the Mean.
My third pick, Georgia, crushed Texas in one of my WF1 Fades. I’m happy about the easy winner but not happy overall because I was too selective.
WF1 was 11-21 coming into play, a 65% Fade. Four games qualified and I only used Arkansas and Texas. The other two spots, TCU and La Tech, also lost.
Missed opportunity.
Radio Days
If you were listening to Sports X Radio (1400 AM, 107.1 FM in Vegas) on Thursday, yes that was me you heard, doing a guest spot on the Ken Thomson show.
If you want to listen to the segment it’s available at the Sports X Radio website.
KT is a well-known radio show host with over 25 years of experience. His knowledge crosses over all sports and his show presents sports from a bettor’s perspective.
One of his regulars couldn’t make it so he graciously offered me the opportunity to do a guest spot.
We focused on my three feature picks, LSU, Georgia, and Marshall Under, hitting two of the three.
Time flies when you’re having fun. Before I knew it the segment was over, and I forgot to give my two NFL article picks, the Niners, and the Baltimore game Over.
Took me a couple minutes to relax and settle into the flow of the show, but I had a good time. He tossed me an easy one over the plate though, but I swung and missed. He asked my opinion about Georgia’s quarterback Gunner Stockton and I admitted I have nothing of value to offer his listeners (Honesty is always the best policy.)
There are approximately 50 games on a Saturday.
I only watch the ones I have money on and I haven’t had money on any Georgia games, so I was unfamiliar with Stockton.
It might sound strange to some readers/bettors, who will think, “How can you bet on a team and not know if their quarterback is good or not?”
But my models are all based on math and numbers. Player personnel and injuries are irrelevant.
It’s all built into the line anyway.
My models work, they’re profitable.
And I stick with what works.
Why I’m Here
There’s a hundred handicappers who give you picks, but almost no one focuses on advice that will help you win more than just one particular game.
And almost no one focuses on helping new bettors.
If I give you a pick that wins, it helps you once.
One and done. It’s finite.
But if I give you helpful information on how to handicap for yourself, or money management advice, it’s infinite – it will help you over the course of your entire sports betting life.
And that’s why I do what I do.
I’m an altruistic guy by nature.
I like to help people, and I hate to see them lose their money to the books.
That’s why I’m grateful, to the publishers here at PredictEm and to Ken Thomson, for allowing me to share with their readers and listeners advice culled from my many years of experience as a bettor and bookmaker.
I hope it helps . . .
