Battling the Books – One Last B2B Over Play?
B2B One Last Time
Wednesday’s play:
Seattle at LA Ov (# ?)
I’m ‘capping this Wednesday game on Tuesday morning and having a difficult time deciding whether to buy it now or wait.
As you’ll see in the paragraphs ahead, Head to Head play favors buying it now because it might go up.
But the recent play of both teams, as well as their season long numbers, heavily leans towards an Under, so the decision should be to wait as the number may drop.
Like I said, it’s a tough call.
WHEN to buy is almost as important as WHO (which team) to buy.
Example: During the NFL preseason I posted an early buy notice on the Broncos/Seahawks game.
I wasn’t sure which way the line would move, so I grabbed Denver +5′ for half of my play, delaying the other half until I saw who would start at quarterback for Seattle.
Game day, Sunday morning, I grabbed the other half of my Denver play at +6.
I waited, but not long enough.
It closed at Seattle -6′.
The Seahawks won by 6.
I ended up with a loss on half of my bet and a push on the other half, when just a little more patience would have been a one unit win.
But I digress.
Back to Chick Ball.
This Sea/LA Ov pick is a play I’ve used with success a couple of times during the regular season here at PredictEm.
The last time I gave it out was September 1st in the forum, with the Conn/Sea game.
It was 16-7, 69% going into that game.
It’s now 17-7, 70%.
This game is the last time this play will be active this year, and since I’ve already banked a few units on it, I almost have to ride it one last time.
Head to Head, 2024, both meetings between these two teams have gone Over. The combined scores were 174 and 172. Both favor the number for an Ov in this contest.
But that’s about the only stat in my favor.
Seattle games have stayed Under in six of their last ten including their last three, not so good for tonight’s number.
On the season the Storm are 14-20 to the Under.
The Sparks are 5-5 on totals in their last ten games and on the season are 16-19 to the Under.
So, recent play for each team and their season-long stats point to the Under in this one.
And here’s more fuel for anyone who wants to go to contrarian to my play on the Over in this one – both LA and Seattle have been in this B2B spot one time each this season. And both games stayed Under.
No matter.
The overriding decision for me making this play is the 17-7 record of WNBA teams playing the second night of back-to-back games (B2B.)
And with a 70% edge I’ll ride this play one more time this season and hope I haven’t stayed in the saddle too long and get bucked by reversion to the mean.
So what’s the final call on when to buy the play?
I got screwed by buying the Seattle Seahawks game earlier than I should have. I’m not making that mistake with the Seattle Storm (yes, there’s no correlation between the two sports or the two games or the two situations, but there is a little symmetry being that they both involve Seattle, so I’m just going by my gut feel here.)
As the sayings go,
“Patience is a virtue.”
And “All good things to those who wait.”
I’m hoping that the majority of the general betting public is not hip to the high percentage of game two of B2B’s going Over, and tomorrow’s money will come on the Under, causing the line to drop.
The WNBA regular season ends next week. After this Sea/LA play on Wednesday, there are only four days left with games on the schedule.
Win or lose with the Sea/LA Over, I have enough units banked to finish the WNBA regular season with a profit. (I’ll post a full accounting at the end of the season.)
I took on the task of handicapping the WNBA to kill time waiting for football to begin and to add another sport to the free picks we offer here at PredictEm. And much to my surprise, I actually became a fan, MUCH preferring it to the NBA.
It was a great season to follow the league as the Caitlin Clark era began. She single-handedly caused an explosion of newfound popularity, driving massive increases in both attendance and revenue.
And, more importantly for PredictEm visitors who played along with me, a little profit in their pocket. And a whole lot of fun and entertainment.
I may have one or two more plays before the season ends; if not – I’ll see you in the playoffs.
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