One of my favorite quotes comes from Alexander Hamilton:
“Men give me credit for genius. All the genius I have lies in this — when I have a subject in hand, I study it profoundly. Day and night it is before me. My mind becomes pervaded with it. Then the effort I’ve made is what people call the fruit of genius. It is the fruit of labor and thought.”
I put many hours of work into my handicapping.
And none more so than when I’m getting ready to send my money out on a Regular Season Wins Total.
For daily sports like basketball I have the limited time between my waking hour and tip-off to handicap the day’s games — a few hours at best.
For football, I have six or seven days (unless it’s weekday MACtion — ya gotta luv MACtion.)
But for Regular Season Wins I have months.
And I use that time advantage as best I can.
I do my initial work, then put it away.
I revisit it later, with a fresh mind.
I put a lot of time and work into it, checking and rechecking scheduled opponents, player updates, and injuries before making my bet.
Then, the fruit of my labor and thought produces Ole Miss Over 8½.
NEXT!
Weekly Recap
I gave back a unit this week, going 1-2, taking losses with two of my strongest handicapping systems.
I hit with my forum play on NIU/Toledo Over, but missed with the two picks in my articles, North Carolina and Tampa Bay.
(Technically, I only lost juice at 2-2 because of Mississippi. But that ticket doesn’t pay off until the season ends, so it will be accounted for in that week.)
College Football Review
Inside the Mind of Bill Belichick:
“Okay, I’m up by 17 points, fourth quarter. I’ve held the other team to just three points, and have eight sacks. That makes this the perfect time to STOP what’s been working for us, to stop being aggressive, and switch to…”
“The Prevent Defense!”
“I’ll have my cornerbacks and safeties play deep to keep everything in front of them and I’ll give up short passes to use up the game clock. I am a genius!”
And that’s exactly what he had his team do.
I had a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter, laying -7.
Normally this is a spot where I like my position.
But not on Saturday’s game.
Not with Belichick.
I knew exactly what he was going to do.
And Stanford, who’d only scored three points all game, slowly worked their way down the field to score a TD.
And then, with just over a minute left in the game, they did it again.
NC wins by 5 points.
And I fall victim to the Prevent Defense, AKA “The Screw Me Out of a Win Defense.”
Sometimes I go with my gut, sometimes I go with my handicapping models.
I had strong numbers on this one and despite my gut advising me not to trust Belichick, I went with them.
No regrets.
Well, maybe one regret.
I said at the beginning of the year I was going to play every game that qualified for an NP Under.
And for good reason:
2020: 28-4, 87% (yes, 87%, publicly documented)
2021: 34-21, 63%
2022: 34-32, 51%
2023: 21-17, 55%
2024: 23-16, 63%
Combined total: 140-87, 61%
But after it had a 1-2 week and was 3-4 on the season I changed strategy, thinking Reversion Towards the Mean was finally setting in.
I ended up not using the Air Force/San Jose St game I noted in my article on North Carolina.
The total was 68.
They scored 42.
The NP Under is now 8-5.
Five years at 61%.
This year, 61%. Again.
No more thinking, no more second-guessing.
For the rest of this season, if a game qualifies — I’m On It!
NFL Review
The Tampa Bay Bucs jumped out to a 7-0 lead but New England showed grit and ended up winning SU.
No regrets.
No wisdom gained in hindsight.
I had solid stats supporting my play AGAINST New England, but sometimes, as the Irish poet Robert Burns said, “The best laid plans of mice and men sometimes go awry.”
(A quote I bastardized during my Rock and Roll bar band days of drugs and groupies, to explain away wanton behavior: ‘Sometimes, the best laid mice plan to go awry.’)
Regular Season Wins Review
Sadly, this will be the last review of my Mississippi Over 8½ wins bet.
Just kidding!
Happily, this will be my last review because with three games left on the schedule the Rebels already hit nine wins.
“In Kiffin I trust.”
As for my NYG Under 5½ wins wager, the G-Boys lost again (were you expecting anything different?)
They had a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter but ended up losing because, well, because they’re the Giants.
And losing is what they do best.
They’re now 2-8.
They have seven games left.
They have to go 4-3 to beat me.
They have 5-2 Green Bay up next, followed by trips to 6-3 Detroit and 8-2 New England.
Those are three losses, which means they have to win all four of their other games.
And even against weak opponents (the Vikings, the Redskins, the Raiders, and the Cowboys) there’s no way the Giants come away from that with a 4-0 sweep.
Not counting my chickens yet, but…
Game Plan for This Week
Time’s running out.
I want to open up my play and buy a few more games than I usually do.
Hopefully, after I’ve done my handicapping, I’ll have a few to choose from.
