It’s crunch time in college and the pros, and I kicked some bookie ass last week.
NFL Review
I’ll never excel as an NBA handicapper because I don’t watch the games.
I can’t. They bore me.
Which leads me to today’s Handicapping 101 Tip, Part One: Watching games helps you become a better handicapper.
Watching games allows you to become familiar with the tendencies of head coaches and their players.
Green Bay at Chicago was a perfect example of this.
After dropping two plays last week, I honed in on one best bet for this week.
The Bears qualified as a play AGAINST spot in three of my handicapping systems.
WF1 was 13-14 on Hm teams.
WF2 was 21-24 on Hm teams.
And when both models say take the same team, the record on Hm teams was 6-8.
The Bears were also in the “Five Straight Wins in a Row” spot, a 9-2 81% play AGAINST record over the last two seasons.
Based on those stats alone I might have bet on and recommended Green Bay last week.
But I went against all those stats and I bet Chicago.
Why?
Because I watched Green Bay vs Chicago three weeks ago.
And because I watched Green Bay against Denver two weeks ago.
And in both games I saw them implode in the fourth quarter.
If I hadn’t watched the Packers previous two games I probably wouldn’t have bet the Bears last week, and might have bet on Green Bay, based on my stats.
But I watched. And I learned.
As I accurately summed it up at the end of the article:
“They stink in crunch time. They can’t close.”
On Saturday, the Pack had a 10-point lead with only two minutes left in the game.
The stats put Green Bay’s probability win rate at 99.5%.
And they ended up losing.
Why?
“They stink in crunch time. They can’t close.”
NEXT!
College Football Review
First up, Jacksonville State. Win.
Next up, Delaware. Win.
Next came Missouri State, Loss.
And finally, the first bet I made, the first article I wrote on the Bowls – Mississippi.
My only concern was the coaching change – would the Rebels be able to cover the -17 Double Digit spread against Tulane?
The two teams met earlier this year, when the Rebels had a different head coach.
Mississippi won that game 45-10.
This week? Mississippi 41-10.
Lane who?
The Missouri State bet was a mistake.
Each week I remind people to check the PredictEm forum for updates.
The day before the Missouri State game, I posted a note warning readers that the buy was a mistake.
I didn’t buy off of it because I don’t like surrendering juice.
Next time, I’ll take the minor hit rather than the bigger one.
Jax State, Delaware, and Missouri State were all from the new Dog system I detailed in my column dated December 16th (this is where I would insert a link to the article if I wasn’t “technologically challenged.”).
It was 32-9, 78% over the last four years.
Sixteen teams qualified this season.
In the article I shared all 16 teams that qualify this season.
Jax St, Delaware, Missouri St
Memphis, Mia Fla, Washington St
Toledo, Hawaii, Central Michigan
New Mexico, East Carolina, Connecticut
Virginia, App St, Navy, W Forest.
The current record stands at 4-2.
In the forum, I shared the eight that I already bought.
Navy -4 (opened at +3/+6 range)
Delaware +3
Missouri St $ line -102
Washington St +3, -115
Toledo +8
Hawaii +1′
New Mexico +3, -118
Wake Forest +3, -115
I forgot to add Jax St, so it’s nine Dogs really.
I was 2-1 in the first three played.
The Mississippi win came from another of my bowl systems, my best one.
As noted in my December 9th article, it has 18 years of accumulated data behind it and was 9-5, 64%.
Mississippi makes it 10-5, 67%.
Overall, a 4-1 week.
And this week’s off to a good start already as my next Dog came in when Washington State crushed Utah State Monday morning, 34-21.
Six of the games with the Sixteen Dogs have already been played.
FOUR of them (Jax State, Delaware, Mia-Fla and Washington St) not only covered, but won SU.
Next up – Toledo on Tuesday.
I haven’t bought this one but I’m looking at it.
Handicapping 101 Part Two – Common Sense
Watching games makes you a better handicapper.
So does common sense.
I saw this Bowl “system” being recommended:
“Always bet on the team with the better Rushing Offense.”
In their game against Alabama, Oklahoma had a better number for rushing offense, YPG, and the better defense YPG.
How’d that work out for the Sooners?
Common sense – if winning at sports betting was that easy there would be no books to bet at, they’d all be out of business.
But the most ridiculous system I saw being recommended advises players to simply bet on the team with the darker jersey.
Even more ludicrous was when someone attempted to apply logic for the play – “The darker Jersey sticks out more, making it easier for the quarterback to locate his players and complete passes.”
Yeah, that’s some real “logic” there.
Pretzel logic.
Common sense – every game during the season has a team with a white jersey facing a team with a darker jersey.
Does the system work then too, or does it magically only work in the Bowls?
(For the record, the teams with the better rushing offense this season are 6-6 ATS, no edge.
And if you think I’m going to research the record of the teams that wore the darker jersey, you’re crazy.
Like I don’t have enough stat work to do…)
