For the second week in a row, I surrendered ground, dropping one unit each in college and the pros.
As always, before I start the next week, I look back at the previous week to see if there’s anything I can learn that will help me with future bets.
And, as always in hindsight, it’s easy to spot mistakes. This week, it was too easy.
In my weekly college football article, I gave out six picks. I finished the week at 3-4.
How could I go 3-4 if I only gave out six picks?
Because when I was writing my weekly NFL article, I had absolutely NOTHING to play.
After doing my handicapping, I was left with no edges on any of the games.
I didn’t want to submit an article without a pick so instead of giving out an NFL play I added another college game to my dance card, using SMU, a play that was not part of my six buys when I finished handicapping college.
A play that didn’t even fit any of the systems I use.
And it lost.
The lesson? It’s an old one, one that I know well, but ignored – DON’T FORCE PICKS!
And if the lesson wasn’t re-learned on Saturday, it was certainly drummed into my head on Sunday when I lost my NFL pick.
What?
Didn’t I just say I added SMU because I didn’t have an NFL pick?
Yes, I did.
But Sunday morning, I wanted some action, so I went back to a prop that I used for a win in week two – Quentin Johnson receiving yards over.
And for the first time this year, he didn’t lead his team in receiving yards and got fewer targets than three other receivers.
I didn’t see that coming, but I should have – DON’T FORCE PICKS!!!
Regular Season Wins Update:
Mississippi had a bye week.
My quest for Over 8′ wins continues this week with the 5-0 Rebels as 32 pt Favs against Washington State.
That will get me to 6-0 with six games left.
With The Citadel still remaining on the schedule, I’m looking good for 7-0, which means I need two wins from their games against Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Florida, and Mississippi State.
Georgia and Oklahoma are both top 10 teams, and the Rebels have to go on the road to face them both. Even though it’s a rivalry, Mississippi State should be an easy win for the Rebels.
So I just need one of those other games to come through to win my bet.
As for the 1-4 New York Giants staying Under 5′, well, let’s just say their latest savior, Jaxon Dart, turned out to be what I said he would be – just a bloke named Brian (ALWAYS include a Monty Python reference whenever you can, even if you used it last week.)
Their new Messiah shapeshifted into Russell Wilson and had THREE turnovers, two interceptions IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, and a bizarre play where he just flat out dropped the ball, untouched by any defender.
T
he Saints were 0-4, it was a chance for the Giants to get their second win of the season, but no.
And who’s that up next on the schedule?
The Superbowl champions, Philadelphia.
Not a team you want to face on an average, regular day, but especially not a pissed off group of Eagles who are fresh off an embarrassing loss to the Broncos.
After that, the Giants get to face those same Broncos, and even worse, it’s in Denver.
Next game, the Eagles again, at their home nest in Philadelphia.
That’s a 0-3 stretch that should have New York at 1-7 at about the halfway mark of the season. Which means they need five wins in their next nine games to get over 5′ (with games against the Packers, Lions, Vikings, and Bears still ahead).
Not bloody likely!
The Game Plan for this Week:
It’s the time of the season to open it up a little bit, to use some of the data that I’ve accumulated and try to bank some units.
To help me out this week, I’ve got not one, not two, but THREE Asterisk Spots in college, where it has a solid 2-4 record for the Fade, right in line with last year’s numbers when it was 9-20.
I’ll have an article submitted later this week with two of the three Asterisk Spots, and the third one will be in the PredictEm Forum later today (Heads up – the play is on tonight’s game, a rare, early weekday game.)
I’ve also got one of my models for totals on college games at 7-11, with a healthy 4-8, 67% Fade on the Unders.
I have five games that qualify for that play this week, and I plan on buying a couple of them. I’m just monitoring the line moves and waiting to pounce.
I
n the NFL I have a subcategory for one of my models for choosing Wrong Favorites that I’m looking at possibly using on Sunday.
WF1 is 11-17 in all games. That’s a 60% Fade.
It’s even better, fading road teams, where it’s 8-13, a 62% Fade. But while digging deeper and looking at some subcategories, I found that when it’s an AFC WF over an NFC team, the record is 2-6, a 75% Fade.
I’ll explain more in my NFL article later this week. Until then, good luck with your play today!
