The NUMBER ONE REASON you should play the OVER on NY Liberty/Atlanta Dream today!
New York at Atlanta
WNBA Total Prediction
Sunday, at 3:00 p.m. EST, the Liberty visit the Dream in a battle for first place in the Eastern Conference.
New York sits in first place with a record of 11-4. Atlanta is a game and a half behind them at 10-6.
The Hm/Rd breakdown gives Atlanta a slight edge with a record of 6-3 at Hm with New York at 5-3 on the Rd.
The Liberty were considered the cream of the crop when they got off to a 9-0 start this season, but since then, they’ve come crashing back down to earth.
NY is just 2-4 in their last six games, and they’ve dropped two of three on their current road trip.
In an earlier meeting against the Dream this year, the Liberty came away with the win, 86-81 at home in New York.
This gives the Dream a double incentive today – they can move into a virtual tie for first place AND get revenge for the earlier season loss.
Atlanta has dropped two in a row.
They lost their last game against the WNBA’s best, the Minnesota Lynx, who sports a 13-2 record. No shame there. But the loss before that was inexcusable, though, when they got beat by the lowly Dallas Wings, who sit in last place in the conference at 5-13.
The Over has cashed in four of the Dream’s last five games and five of New York’s last six.
On the Rd NY is 6-2 to the Over.
At Hm, Atlanta is just 3-5 to the Over, but in recent play, their last three Hm games have gone Over.
From my personal handicapping methods, I have two fits for an Over in this one.
My T1 model says the game stays Under, but it has a record of 6-10 on the season, making this spot a 62% Fade.
This game also fits a subcategory I track that compares my two models for picking WNBA totals.
It has a record of 3-1 and says this one goes Over.
The number on tonight’s game opened at 166 and is now sitting at 164.
Four of New York’s last five games have surpassed today’s number.
And . . .
Four of Atlanta’s last five games have also surpassed this number.
That’s a combined 8 out of 10 to the Over.
Based on their recent play, combined with my two models, I’m playing the Over in this one.
But here’s my number one reason for this play:
New York’s Jonquel Jones is out with an injury.
NY’s defense was giving up an average of 75 PPG with Jones in the lineup.
Since losing Jones in Q1 vs Phoenix on 6/19, the Liberty have been surrendering 90 PPG.
That’s a differential of 15 points per game!
When to Buy Recommendation
The number’s dropping, but I don’t expect it’ll get much lower, so I’m grabbing it now at our sponsor, Bet Online.
I also have a prop bet in this game that I’ll post in the PredictEm forum. Be sure to check it out!
My play:
NY/Atl Ov 164
Side note – Friday, Indiana/Dallas game, I saw Natasha Howard shoot an uncontested three-pointer from the corner that hit the top left side of the backboard and bounced back at her.
Uncontested.
From the corner.
Top left SIDE of the backboard.
THIS is the WNBA.
Recap: 1-1
Record: 9-12
Review: I didn’t get the best line and could have done better had I waited until tip-off, but it didn’t matter as the Fever covered for me at Dallas.
I lost my other play as New York fell behind by nine points early in Q1 and never recovered.
