Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm
Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics
In their first games back since the All-Star game, WNBA teams will be playing after a break of at least three full days. When handicapping teams in this situation, the question is always – rest or rust?
Will the extra days off help or hurt them?
I took a close look at one player in this situation, and I’m using her in two props tonight – Nneke Ogwumike.
Here are her averages for points and rebounds for the full season:
17.1 points, 7.7 rebounds.
Now let’s look at the Seattle forward in games after she had at least three days’ rest.
5/19 Hm game, 24 points, 8 rebounds
6/7 Rd game, 13 points, 6 rebounds
6/11 Hm game, 21 points, 10 rebounds
7/3 Rd game, 24 points, 7 rebounds
Averages 20.5 points, 7.7 rebounds
Her rebounds stay the same, but she has a nice little jump in points scored from 17.1 to 20.5.
Looking at her averages when she’s at Hm in this spot, she has 22.5 points and 9 rebounds.
And Seattle is at Hm against Dallas tonight.
One last thing to check – how does she do H2H when playing the Dallas Wings.
5/19 Rd game, 23 points, 18 rebounds
6/3 Hm game, 14 points, 9 rebounds
Averages: 18.5 points, 13.5 rebounds
In the June 3rd game where she had only 14 points she only took 11 shots, 31% fewer than normal; a statistical anomaly.
That’s extremely unlikely to happen again.
She averages 30 minutes per game.
In her last ten games with 28 or more minutes of playing time, she’s taken more than 11 shots in 9 of the 10.
I’m looking for her to surpass her season averages tonight based on three factors:
- Her numbers when she’s on three or more days rest.
- Her numbers when she’s on three days rest and at Hm.
- Her H2H numbers in a matchup against this particular opponent, the Wings.
For my third play I’m going to use Dearica Hamby Over 6′ rebounds.
It’s a little pricey at -140, but she’s grabbed seven or more rebounds in 7 of her last 10 games, with two of the games she missed landing on 6.
Her minutes are consistent, and this is a good matchup for her. In her game against Washington earlier this season she only had six rebounds but she played only 26 minutes, she usually plays 30+.
On three or more days of rest, she’s surpassed seven rebounds in 2 of 3 games.
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My plays:
Ogwumike Ov 16′ points, -115
Ogwumike Ov 7′ rebounds, +110
Hamby Ov 6′ rebounds -140
Recap: 0-1
Record: 16-17
Review: Still treading water with WNBA picks in my articles, one step forward, one step back.
For my last play, I had Natasha Howard with over 6′ rebounds. She averages 30 minutes a game.
With Caitlin Clark out, I figured Howard would get at least her normal 30 minutes of court time.
She only played 16 minutes.
She wasn’t playing poorly, so she didn’t get yanked for that.
I checked the wires, and there was no talk about her getting injured.
Even with almost half her normal playing time, she still managed to grab five rebounds, leaving me two short.
The coach put her back in in the 4th quarter, and I thought I had a good chance of getting the win, but she came out after just ONE play.
I don’t know what was going on.
Then I had a theory.
I checked the Fever’s schedule from about a month ago, and, sure enough – she had another game where she only played 16 minutes.
I’m not saying it was the extra X chromosome factor in play, but it IS something that can’t screw you when you bet an NBA player prop.
