RBD breaks down UFL Week 2 betting with sharp insights on Houston’s struggles and why this matchup presents a strong handicapping opportunity.
Birmingham at Houston
UFL Pick and Analysis, Week Two
UFL is Back, Baby!
(Does anybody care, Baby?)
Okay, I care.
But I wouldn’t be surprised to find I’m the only one.
Before I get into my week one review and week two pick and analysis, let’s examine the rule changes.
In an effort to increase scoring (and waning interest in the game) receivers only have to have one foot in bounds for it to be a catch, just like in college.
I’m okay with this rule.
Field goals of 60 yards or more are now worth four points.
This one’s a little bit weird but okay, whatever.
The Tush Push is now illegal.
I’m okay with this one too — the play was getting kind of boring.
It was almost automatic and took away any drama/excitement on fourth downs.
The next rule change is where things get a little strange.
Teams are no longer allowed to punt if they’re inside their opponents 50 yard line.
They have to either go for it on 4th down or kick long field goals.
But here’s the problem with the rule.
If the ball’s on the 49 yard line and you have a good kicker,
take a 5-yard false start penalty and pick up the extra point for a measly 5 yards.
Conversely, if your kicker sucks, and you’re on the 49 yard line,
take a 5 yard false start and now you can punt it.
This new rule strikes me as kind of dumb.
I don’t know if the league thought of these scenarios and put in contingencies.
Does a false start penalty purposely used to avoid the field goal move you back the yardage but doesn’t relieve you of the mandatory kick?
I’m curious to see how many games go by before a coach tries it.
Despite the new rule changes, there were three Unders and only one Over in week one,
two of the three easily staying Under by double digits.
Now, on to my week two pick.
While watching the games I keep a notebook and pen handy,
to write down anything I think I might be able to use to my advantage the following week.
The standout note from week one says:
Houston We Have a Problem
This team is an all around hot mess.
Let’s start with the “coaching.”
Houston is down 20-3 with just over a minute left in the first half.
Dallas is on the Houston 40 yard line, third down.
I look at the screen and see that Houston has three timeouts, and I’m wondering:
“Why aren’t they using one so they can get the ball back and try to score before halftime???”
It’s fourth down, Dallas is going to attempt a field goal.
And the announcers go:
“I don’t understand why Houston isn’t using one of their three timeouts.”
Dallas runs the clock down, kicks the field goal,
and Houston coach Kevin Sumlin takes his three timeouts into the locker room where they’re totally worthless.
When the announcers know more about managing the game clock than the head coach,
there’s a problem.
Coaching like that is the reason why SIX of the EIGHT UFL teams have new head coaches this year.
I doubt all eight of them will make it through the entire season without getting fired.
The leading candidate for the first one to be shown the door is Sumlin,
who for reasons I can’t fathom has been given his second chance at coaching the UFL’s Houston team.
Granted, he doesn’t have much to work with.
Which is why I’m fading the Gamblers in week two.
Houston lost 36-17, a differential of 19,
the highest in the league in week one.
Dallas QB Austin Reed had a great day passing against the Gambler’s defense,
passing for a UFL single game record of 376 yards.
Houston starting quarterback Nolan Henderson got yanked after just three drives:
a three and out, an interception, and another three and out.
Backup quarterback Hunter Dekkers took over on Houston’s 4th possession and managed to get a field goal,
but Sumlin pulled him and put Henderson back in so he could throw another interception.
Using your practice time to decide who gets the starting nod is the norm,
but the indecision shown by Sumlin in-game just makes you shake your head and wonder —
why did they hire him again?
This week they face the Birmingham Stallions.
In week one, the Stallions forced three turnovers and put up 319 total yards.
They converted on 10 of 16 third downs and controlled the clock.
Louisville found their way into the red zone four times,
but the Birmingham D held them to just one score.
They held Louisville to just 46 rushing yards,
which means Houston is going to have to rely on a passing game that has two inefficient QBs and an indecisive head coach.
Lay the -7 now because this one WILL be higher by game time.
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to -9 or 10.
Recap: 3-1
Record: 3-1
Review:
I looked over my UFL from last season, articles and Forum combined I finished at 14-13.
In other words, with juice, break even.
Not good, but it hits my #1 goal of not losing money.
At 3-1, I escaped the first week with a profit.
As I made note of in the PredictEm Forum,
I used small betting units because I don’t take the time to run these games through the usual handicapping methods I use for other sports.
Last year I used the “Fade the ‘Cappers” method.
Each week I charted approximately 10 different guys who gave out their picks on websites or videos
and just Faded the teams that got the most picks.
I wanted to use it again this season but, there’s a problem.
Last year I had at least 8 to 10 guys on the weekly chart.
This season, almost every one of them is gone.
Only one of the guys that I used regularly posted a video and he doesn’t give spreads.
Just another sign that this league is in trouble and people are losing interest.
I went 2-0 in the morning game on Saturday and shut it down for the week,
locking up the profit from 3-1.
This was not a financial decision.
It was based on discipline.
A lack of discipline is one of the major reasons most sports bettors lose.
Practicing solid principles of discipline is always a smart move, regardless of wager size.
