RBD breaks down early bowl betting results, tracking favorites, totals, and system-based predictions as the postseason board takes shape.
With a week of Bowls behind us let’s look at some basics to keep in mind as we try to figure out who to put our money on the rest of the way.
Favorites are 4-4. No edge.
Overs are 3-5, slight edge to the Under.
Two Plays to Watch
How about two plays to watch out for that I mentioned in my articles last week, Flip Flop Favs and teams that come into a Bowl game after losing at least two straight games or more to end their regular season.
Flip Flop Favs
These are teams that opened as Dogs and became the Favorite. The new Favs are 2-1.
Yes it’s a small data sample at 1-1, 67%, but that’s right in line with numbers over the past few seasons.
But we also have a team that went from Favorite to Dog and closed as the Favorite again, Arkansas State.
They won and covered, which means following the money in this type of games gives you a record of 2-1.
Teams that Lost Two or More
There have been two of these so far, Missouri State and Memphis. Both lost their Bowl games SU. More importantly both failed to cover.
At 0-2 this is a favorable Fade, especially when you factor in that these teams were 1-3 ATS in 2023 and 3-5 ATS last season.
Adding this year’s 0-2 gives you a combined record of 4-10, a very solid 71% Fade.
Next up on the menu for these games:
Western Kentucky
Southern Miss
Georgia Tech
Coastal Carolina
Nebraska
Rice
Cincinnati
Mississippi State
Western Kentucky and Southern Miss play each other, so that cancels both of them out.
I like that Cincinnati’s in the spot too because I’ve already bet Navy based on other systems I have that they qualify for.
Saturday Board Notes
There are no Flip Flop Favs on schedule for today, (Saturday) in the FBS, but Ill State opened as a Dog versus Villanova and is now at -2 if you don’t mind investing in a little FCS action.
The game is televised tonight on ESPN.
Record & Process Notes
I’m currently at 2-1 in my Bowl plays.
I should be at 2-0. I eliminated Memphis because they’re in the “Lost Two Straight” spot but missed the fact that Missouri State was too.
I noticed it and mentioned it in the PredictEm forum where I’ve been giving daily updates, but I don’t like buying off a game and surrendering juice so I just let the play ride and got tagged with a loss.
And speaking of the PredictEm forum, I gave out the details of one of my Bowl systems yesterday, on the Kennesaw State/Western Michigan game, a play for the second half.
One of the things that keeps people out of the 90-95% of bettors who lose is keeping a database. That’s how I knew what the high percentage play was on the second half in Ken St/W Mich.
If you’re into handicapping, check out the post and add it to your database.
With yesterday’s win the play is now 38-26 over the past 18 Bowl seasons. That’s a very playable 59% edge. Hopefully there’ll be one or two more this year.
Open Plays
Mississippi -17
Navy -4
Wash St +3
Toledo +8
Hawaii+1′
New Mex +3
W Forest +3
Not showing above, but in my pocket, Louisiana Tech.
I bought this back on December 14th at -8′.
I sent a note to the editor to let him know that I was writing up the play and would be submitting it ASAP.
I checked my articles and the Forum and I can’t find the write-up so apparently I dropped the ball, forgot to send it in.
Adding it today but have to use -9 because that’s the common number right now.
Looking at Today’s Card
Looking at today’s three game card . . .
Miami is one of the 16 dogs for the new model I came up with Monday night. So far these are 2-2, 50% (2-0 If you eliminate the two teams that lost two straight at the end of the regular season.)
The Hurricanes opened at +3′ and are still at +3.
What’s holding me back from taking them?
My “Wrong Favorite” model WF1 says Miami should be the Favorite.
WF1 is 1-2 so far this Bowl season.
WF2 agrees that Miami should be the Favorite.
WF2 is 2-1 to start the season.
Matches, when both pick the same team, are 1-1, (they both chose Delaware.)
I’m taking a hard look at the ‘Canes, may add them as a play. If I do, I’ll post it in the Forum.
Next up is Mississippi. I already bought them based on the reasons given in the article I wrote about the game – the Rebels have the better number in all seven categories that I’ve been rating Bowl teams on for 18 years now.
That play is 9-5, 64%. (USC also qualifies.)
I really like Oregon, but J Madison screwed me on their championship week game so I’m not looking forward to giving them a chance to do so again.
I’m going to take a closer look at I’ll St in that FCS game. It’s a 5:00 p.m. Pacific Time start and I may just jump on it.
Check the forum for updates.
