CFL Prediction Ottawa at Calgary
Saturday, June 21 at 4:00 p.m. EST
Televised on CBSSN
“It’s a trap!”
(No, it’s not.)
(I think.)
As we hit the summer doldrums while waiting for real football to begin it’s time to look North, to that crazy game where there are no fourth downs, the fields are 10 yards longer than they’re supposed to be, and every play has too many men on the field.
Yes, sports fans, it’s the CFL.
By my account at the time of this writing, we have 64 days to kill before the college football season kicks off and 76 days for the NFL (unless your betting season starts with the Hall of Fame game in which case you only have 41 days to wait.)
So for some football fun in the meantime . . .
“O Canada.”
Friday, June 20, play begins in CFL Week 3.
I spent the first two weeks collecting data, and I’m ready to make my first bets of the season.
I reviewed my numbers from last year’s charts and see that a couple of my models were profitable.
I simply applied the same methods I use for college and pro football picks – two ways to find Wrong Favorites to bet on and three to find totals.
WF1 was 8-2 (Hm 3-0, Rd 5-2.)
WF2 was 3-1 (Hm 1-0, Rd 2-1.)
One system for totals (T1) was 7-4 (Hm 4-3, Rd 3-1), one had no plays, and my H/C trend reversal spot was 2-0, both Unders.
These are not stats from a complete, full season.
I started late (like this year, I really didn’t start paying attention until after the UFL and NBA seasons ended) and finished early (six weeks before the end of the season and the playoffs.)
Once college and NFL football began, I dropped the CFL, although looking at the numbers from last season, that was a stupid move. The systems were all profitable, and if there was no regression toward the mean, I could have banked a few more units.
I’ll try to stay interested and find the time to do a full season of CFL ‘capping in 2025.
At PredictEm, I was 6-3.
I posted my final record at 5-3, but looking over my charts this morning, I saw that on Friday, August 23rd, I had two picks, the Hamilton game Under and Edmonton + 7. Both plays won, but only the Hamilton play had a green check mark next to it, and the updated record below the plays only credited me for one win.
(These mistakes go both ways; I’ve also corrected records for losses that I missed. I use these records to base future plays on; if the records aren’t accurate, I’m only screwing myself.)
Here’s what I have record-wise going into this week:
WF1 is 1-1, Hm 1-0, Rd 0-1
WF2 is 1-0 (Hm)
T1 is 0-2, (Ov 0-1, Un 0-1)
T2 is 2-1, all three were Hm games
H/C is 0-0
And here are the plays that qualify this week:
WF1 Calgary
WF2 Calgary
T1 Win/BC Under
Looking at Ottawa/Calgary, I see the team’s seasons have started in opposite directions.
Calgary’s off to a 2-0 start.
They have double-digit wins in both games, 38-26 over Hamilton and 29-19 over Toronto.
Otta-wa looks more like an otto-man, used as footstools by Saskatchewan who beat them 31-26 and Montreal who more than doubled them up at 39-18.
So why is the 2-0 team getting points from the 0-2 team, and they’re at home??!!
Good question.
If I was a member of The CTC (Conspiracy Theory Crew), I’d say it’s a trap line. But I made the odds for years in Vegas, and I know there’s no such thing as a trap line, despite what knuckleheads on the internet say. It’s just not how lines are made.
Ottawa is getting Dru Jones back at QB, but that shouldn’t account for a bad number being set, especially on a team that was 2-7 on the Rd last season and is already 0-1 on the Rd this season.
That makes the Redblacks 2-8 SU in their last 10 road games, yet they’re a Rd Fav against 2-0 Calgary???!!
I don’t know; maybe they DO have trap games up in Canada? (JK)
Like with any game, winning stats and trends can be provided for either side, but with a PF/PA differential of 48 (Ott is -26, Cal is +22), I can’t see a way to take the Redblacks as a Rd Fav in this game.
I mean, c’mon, Ottawa has a total of 70 rushing yards for the season.
Even if you say, “Well, the season is only two games old,” it doesn’t change the ugliness of an average of 35 rushing yards per game.
You have the number one scoring offense in the league (33.5 PPG) at Hm, playing the worst scoring defense (35 PPG) in the league.
And I’m not laying a bunch of points??!!
There’s a saying, “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is, so STAY AWAY!”
But I’m ignoring that advice.
I hear Admiral Ackbar in my head, shouting, “It’s a trap!” (and yes, I’m shamefully embarrassed to be quoting Star Wars.)
But I can’t resist the bait.
I just hope that come Saturday night, I’m not going to end up trying to gnaw my leg off at the ankle to escape the metal jaws.
Just in case I turn out to be Wile E Coyote and not Road Runner, I’m going to hedge my Calgary bet with a little action on the Over.
Both Redblacks games came in at 57.
Calgary’s came in at 64 and 48.
And the books hung a 50 on this one??!!
It almost looks like a . . . I’m not gonna say it.
My plays:
Cal +1′
Ott/Cal Ov 50
CFL record 0-0
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