Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries
Free Play on the Total
The Golden State Valkyries are on pace to become a playoff team in their inaugural season. In the WNBA, the top eight teams make the postseason. Right now, the Valkyries are sitting in sixth place, but not comfortably – they’re only two games ahead of ninth-place LA and three games ahead of tenth-place Washington.
And the road ahead is not easy.
They have 11 games left, but only three of them are against teams below them in the standings.
They have to face first-place Minnesota twice and have two games against the teams tied for second right now, Atlanta and New York.
The first of those two games is today when they take on the Dream at home in Valhalla.
I’m on the Over at 152′.
The game qualifies for not one, not two, but three different models I track.
T2 says the game goes Over.
T2 has the same record as when I used it on Friday in the GS/Chi game, 10-6, 62%.
I got a Push on the game because I didn’t wait to buy the line, a line that dropped a full point by tip-off, a number that would have given me another win with this play.
And today’s game also fits the same subcategory that was in play for that GS/Chi game. The point differential is not enough for it to qualify as a play for T1, but when my numbers from both T1 and T2 agree that the game will go Over, I have a record of 8-4.
And today’s game fits a third spot that I have that wasn’t active in that GS/Chi game, my H/C (Hot/Cold) Trend Reversal spot.
I’ve only had two of these this season that qualified for an Over, and the record is 2-0.
And if there’s any team that’s prime for a trend reversal/reversion toward the mean, it’s the Valkyries. Their record on Ov/Un this season is 12-21, the Over cashing at just 37%.
Like I said, they’re prime for a reversal toward the mean, heading back to where all stats eventually end up at, breakeven at 50%.
Hopefully starting today.
Recap: 1-2
Record: 27-28
Review: I gave a little bit back yesterday, hitting my play on the Minnesota team total but losing both props. McBride got the amount of three pointers I thought she would (7), but hit below her average, only making two of them.
I’m not sure what happened on the Carrington prop. She only played half of her usual allotment of minutes. She wasn’t injured; it was strictly a coach’s decision. When you ‘cap a prop based on usage and you only get 50% of that usage, there’s no way you’re going to hit an Over. Unexpected reduction of playing time is one of the dangers of using props, and I got bitten by that snake yesterday.
And speaking of props, I hope to have at least one for the PredictEm forum posted later this morning.
