Atlanta Dream at Dallas Wings
WNBA Prediction for Tuesday, June 24th.
Normally, when I’m tracking records, I’m hoping I don’t get something that’s hovering around .500 because those plays have no value. They don’t provide a strong edge to play ON or to Fade.
Today is different, I’m rooting for one of my models to come in at .500 because it’s sitting at 4-3 and I’m Fading it.
I’ll explain.
Tonight, the Atlanta Dream travel to Dallas to take on the Wings. One of my handicapping models for choosing teams that I think the books made the Wrong Fav, WF1, says Dallas should be the Favorite in this game.
WF1 is 8-10 on the season.
It has a losing record of 4-7 when it’s a Rd team.
It has a winning record of 4-3 when it’s a Hm team, like the Wings tonight.
And I’m betting that the record for Hm teams joins the record for Rd teams on the losing side of the ledger after tonight’s games.
Why?
Because last season, WNBA WF1 spots lost at a 65% clip. This season they started off with a winning record but it’s slowly edging its way back to .500 and I’m betting that it keeps heading in that direction.
Normally, any spot that’s hitting at better than 58% is a play for me, so 65% definitely qualifies as something I want to take a closer look at. So I dug deeper on this one and found that I have more data I like than just my WF1 model in tonight’s game. I have a perfect percentage to factor in, too – Dallas is a perfect 0-5 ATS, 0%, at Hm this season.
And Atlanta has been a Dream (sorry for the bad pun) for those who back them in Rd games, coming into tonight’s game at 5-2, 71%.
So I have three angles I like:
Fading WF1
Betting AGAINST the Wings at Hm
Betting ON Atlanta when they’re on the Rd
And that’s enough edges for me to lay my money down.
Minnesota also fits this WF1 spot tonight, but I trust Atlanta a little bit more. The Lynx’s opponent, Washington, is 2-0 ATS when getting Double Digits this season, and Minnesota is just 1-1 when laying Double Digits on the Rd. They’re at -9′ right now but I expect they’ll be DD Favs by tip off.
I’ll spend some time this morning doing some prop handicapping. Check back at the PredictEm forum to see if I have any more plays.
When to Buy Recommendation
This one opened as high as Atl -10′, but it’s down to -9/-8′. And I see a couple of -8s starting to show up.
Since it’s moving in my favor, I’ll wait to buy this one. It’s readily available at -8′, but I’ll wait a little longer to see if the hook drops off at most houses so I can use the WAN here for anyone who wants to play this one, too. Worst case, I lay the 8′.
Side note – on Thursday, June 26th, the Las Vegas Aces will be playing in the B2B spot (Game 2 of Back to Back nights.)
There have been five B2B spots this season
ALL five teams have covered the spread.
Last season, the Over was 17-6, 73%, in these spots. After starting the season 0-2, the Over has made a comeback, the last three games all surpassing the total. The record is now 3-2, and the Over is now profitable, just like last season.
How do I know the Aces fit this B2B profile on Thursday night?
The same way I know what the record was last year and what the record is this year – I KEEP NOTES.
At the beginning of the season, I looked over the entire WNBA schedule and put together a list of all teams that fit the B2B spot, and marked the dates on my calendar.
This way, when I’m looking over each day’s games, I don’t have to remember if a team played last night or not. I just check my chart each morning to see if anything fits that day.
Watch for my PredictEm article on the Importance of Keeping Notes, coming soon.
DON’T rely on memory so you don’t miss out on any opportunities.
My play:
Atlanta (wait to buy)
Recap: 1-1
Record: 8-9
Review: I got lucky. I made a bad call using New York and Golden State, mistakenly believing the Commissioner’s Cup was still going on. I had the wrong end date for the tournament.
The Liberty lost SU as DD Favs in the early game, but the Valkyries rode to my rescue, winning SU as DD Dogs in the late game.
Amateur mistake, no excuse for it, luckily I dodged a bullet and got the split. (edited)
