New York Liberty at Golden State Valkyries
WNBA Prediction for Wednesday June 25
Tonight, the Liberty meets the Valkyries. Let’s crunch some numbers with an eye toward playing Over on the total.
New York has gone Over in 8 of 13 games.
New York has gone Over in 5 of 6 Rd games.
The number on tonight’s game is 161′.
Using that total, New York’s numbers stay the same: 13 games have surpassed 161, and 5 of 6 road games saw more points scored than 161′.
On the Golden State side, the Valkyries have gone Under in 8 of 13 games.
At home, 4 of 7 have stayed Under the number.
Using tonight’s number of 161′, 4 of 7 have stayed Under.
The New York stats point towards an Over on the number set for tonight’s game.
The Golden State numbers point towards an Under.
But when you look at the teams Golden State has played at home, you see names like the Sun, the Mystics, the Aces, and the Sparks.
All of them reside at the bottom of the WNBA for offensive PPG.
Tonight, they get the Liberty, who are the number one scoring team in the league, averaging 88.3 PPG.
Here’s what sealed the deal for me on buying the Over in tonight’s game – the Valkyries are on a roll; they’ve won five of their last six games. They’re starting to gel as a unit, especially on offense. In those six games, they averaged 84 points on offense.
In their first six games of the season, they averaged just 73 points a game.
That’s an improvement of 11 PPG.
Like I said, they’re starting to gel on offense.
Tonight they face one of the top defenses in the league. The Liberty give up an average of 77 PPG overall, but that number goes up to 80.5 when they’re on the road, where they’ve been fortunate enough to face some of the worst offenses in the league, like Chicago and Washington.
The Liberty score an average of 83.5 PPG on the Rd. My numbers have them hitting 84+ tonight, which means I’ll need 77 from a Golden State team that averages 78.5 PPG overall and 84 in recent play, facing a New York team that gives up 80.5 on the Rd.
I like those numbers.
I think I can get at least two 20+ pt quarters out of GS at home tonight, so I’m taking the Over.
When to Buy Recommendation
The line opened at 163′.
It’s currently at 161′ at most books, but I see 161 at one or two houses. I think 161′ is too low, and I don’t expect 161 to become the WAN (Widely Available Number.) Still, it can’t hurt to wait a little bit to see if I’m wrong. If 162 starts to show up, I’ll just grab the 161′.
I’ll try to post the final number I buy in the PredictEm forum.
Side note #1
In my article dated May 14th, I recommended a play on the Valkyries Regular Season Wins total Over 8′ at +104.
Their current record is 7-6.
They play 44 games this season.
They’ve won seven of 13 games thus far.
I only need two more wins in their next 31 games to win that bet.
I kinda (yes, I know “kinda” is not a real word) like my position there.
Side note #2
The Las Vegas Aces are -18′ against Connecticut tonight. I have some very interesting numbers on sides and totals for WNBA teams as Double Digit Favs, at Hm and on the Rd.
I’ll be sharing them in the PredictEm forum a little later today. Be sure to check them out before you make any plays.
NY/GS Over (wait to buy)
Recap: 0-1
Record: 8-10
Review: I had a choice between two plays from my WF1 system, Atlanta and/or Minnesota.
Didn’t matter which one I chose, both won.
BUT I Faded Atlanta.
The Dream not only didn’t cover the -8′ spread, but they lost SU to cellar-dweller Dallas.
And Minnesota lost SU to Washington.
