New York Liberty at Chicago Sky
Free play for Thursday
It’s the final day of the WNBA regular season and it hasn’t been a winning campaign for me.
My record on picks in my articles is 28-33, five games under .500.
My record on forum picks is 24-18, six games above .500.
Overall 52-51.
On average, every 10 games lost is approximately one unit in juice so I’m down about four units on the season, with one day left to try and cut into that number.
I’ve got a couple of spots to choose from.
WF1 says LA should be favored at Hm over Vegas tonight. WF1 home teams have a record of 11-6. That’s 64%, normally a percentage I would play ON. But none of the spots in that 17 game sample were the last game of the season.
Am I going to lay 11 points with Vegas, a team that’s already got their playoff spot locked up and will be resting starters?
Am I going to risk taking 11 points with LA, a team who’s disappointed after getting knocked out of the playoffs in their last game?
I don’t think so.
I rarely buy games that I don’t have one of my handicapping models suggesting a play on but that’s what I’m doing tonight. I’m buying a play on gut feel, with a little bit of favorable stats mixed in – a play AGAINST the New York Liberty.
For most of the regular season the Liberty battled it out with the Lynx for the top spot in the league.
But the injuries kept stacking up, with three of their top players missing time down the stretch – Jonquel Jones, Stewie, and Ionescu.
They’re limping into the playoff in 5th place.
With those injuries weighing heavily on her mind, I know head coach Sandy Brondello is not going to risk losing one of her star players in the final game of the regular season. So we’ve got a game where a coach will no doubt be resting her starters, yet they’re a Double Digit Rd Fav.
That’s too many points for a team in this situation to be laying against most WNBA teams, the question is – is Chicago one of those teams?
The Sky are a mess, on court and off.
Angel Reese is a disaster.
She’s a whiny little b*tch baby, totally classless and self-centered. She was suspended last week for making comments detrimental to the team (like I said, self-centered.)
She hasn’t played since the suspension because of “back injuries” but it’s just as likely the entitled little brat has just quit on the season. The Sky would do well to dump her before next year, if they can find anyone foolish enough to take her.
Chicago finished at just 10-33, one game away from being the worst team in the league (Dallas is 9-34.)
The Sky come into this one on a three-game losing streak, including an embarrassing 31 point loss to Las Vegas in their last game.
It’s a risky spot, even with +13 points.
It’s a game between a team that won’t be giving 100% effort with their top lineup, against a team who seemingly has quit on the season (and stinks to begin with even if they weren’t quitting.)
If this was a Rd game I’d stay off it, but I’ll take a chance that Chicago’s going to play with just a little bit of pride at Hm in their final game of a disastrous season.
Their three straight losses were all road games. They’ve covered the spread in three of their last four home games.
Last year with their playoff spot sewn up, Brondello’s Liberty lost two of their last three games SU.
Same situation in 2023, playoff spot guaranteed, they finished the regular season 0-3 SU.
That’s SU losses in five of six meaningless games at the end of the year.
They probably won’t lose tonight, not to this mess of a Chicago team.
But I don’t need them to lose.
I just need to stay within 13 points.
And although Chicago is just 8-13 ATS at Hm (38%) NY is just 4-16 ATS on the Rd (20%) and 1-4 as Double Digit Rd Favs.
That 4-16 ATS Rd record came in games they wanted/needed to win during the season.
Tonight they’re laying Double Digits in a meaningless game.
I’ll take the points.
When to Buy Recommendation
This line is 12′ all across the board, not a 12 or 13 to be found.
And even the prices are mixed, some houses have extra juice on NY, some on Chicago.
I have no real feel for which way this one’s going to move, but it can’t hurt to wait since I’m going to need every point I can get with the Sky.
I’ll wait to buy this one.
