WNBA Free Picks
Seattle Storm at Connecticut Sun
New York Liberty at Dallas Wings
Today’s WNBA schedule offers a unique wagering opportunity for betting on the Over.
There are two games on the card, and both of them feature teams that also played yesterday, making them a fit for the B2B situational spot.
Dallas was Hm yesterday against LV and lost 106-80.
They host the New York Liberty today.
Connecticut was at home and beat Golden State 95-64. They host the Seattle Storm today.
The overall record for teams in Gm 2 of B2B’s is 10-6 on Overs.
Broken down into a Hm/Rd subcategory the Over is just 3-5 on Hm teams, and both spots today are at home. But last year, B2B Hm teams were 8-1 to the Over, so I expect that 3-5 to level out before the season ends.
Hopefully starting tonight with Sea/Con.
The Sea/Con game also has the Storm as a Double Digit Favorite.
DD Favs are 27-29 overall on Overs but 12-9, 57%, when it’s a Rd team like Seattle tonight.
AND it’s Monday.
Here’s an excerpt from my column dated Monday, July 14th:
“Tonight, by the way, is a Monday, a day that WNBA teams rarely play on.
Monday, the day that most people who have jobs hate the most.
Monday, the day after partying on the weekend, the day that teams are too lazy/uninspired to play a tight defense?”
There’s only been four Monday games all season long. It seems girls just don’t like playing on Mondays (actually, it’s probably because of attendance problems and low turnout).
The record on Overs is 3-1.”
My play that day was on the Minnesota game to go Over 161′. The game landed on 169.
There have been approximately 170 WNBA games played this season, and only 6 have been on a Monday. Weigh it as much as you’d like, or consider it a non-factor, but going into today’s two games, the record on these is 4-2 on the Over, for whatever that’s worth.
The Storm/Sun game fits all three spots that lean towards the Over as noted above.
We have a team in Gm 2 of B2B’s, a Double Digit Fav, and it’s a Monday game.
And the line has moved in my favor.
The total opened at 160′ and is down to 156.
(I have to submit these articles earlier; the line just went up to 157.)
For team-specific stats, this is the second time Connecticut has played Gm 2 of B2B’s.
On 6/18, they were at home against Phoenix.
The game went Over but just by a hook.
Prop bet:
I think I got a soft number here.
The books hung a 9′ on New York’s Fiebich points total for tonight. That’s just above her average of 9, but in her last five games, she’s scored 10, 13, 17, 10, 21.
AND Stewart is out tonight, so I expect Fibby to get a few minutes over her average of 27 per game to help my cause.
AND it doesn’t hurt that Dallas played last night, so hopefully Fibby will get a couple of fast break easy scores against tired Dallas Wing legs in the second half (Wing legs? Sounds like I’m talking about chickens here.)
My play:
Sea/Con Ov 157
Fiebich Ov 9′ pts, -130
Recap: 0-1
Record: 20-20
Review: I lost on the Over in yesterday’s Phx/Wash game. After scoring 23 points in the first quarter and 23 in the second, Washington only managed 12 in the third quarter.
I was still well within range of winning my bet, but the Mystics went 5 minutes without a point in Q4.
A WNBA quarter is only 10 minutes, not the 12 they play in the NBA. Washington went more than half of a quarter without scoring a single point, and the game stayed Under by just three points.
Ugh
