Minnesota Lynx at Seattle Storm Pick
Napheesa Collier Out
The frontrunner for the MVP race, Minnesota’s star forward Napheesa “Phee” Collier, is out for at least two weeks due to a sprained ankle.
The total on tonight’s game opened at 159′ and has already been bet down to 156′.
Collier is the team’s leading scorer, putting up 23.5 PPG.
And she’s the team’s leading rebounder at 7.5 per game.
Tough shoes to fill, but is 156′ an overreaction by the betting public, off of a line already set too low by the books?
I’m betting that it is.
It’s typical for the betting public to overreact in the first game after a star player is out.
And knowing this will happen, the books adjust their opening number.
This will be the Lynx fourth game of the season without Phee. Their record is 2-1, SU.
In the other three, they scored 74, 82, and 64.
Two of those three are under what I’ll need from them tonight for my play on the game to go Over.
But I have these stats in my favor, from my personal handicapping models.
My T1 system says the game goes Over by enough of a point differential to qualify as a play.
T1 has a record of just 3-3 on Overs.
But T2 also has the game qualifying as an Over.
And the record for T2 on Overs is 8-4, 67%.
And I have a subcategory that’s too convoluted to explain (translation: it’s getting close to my submission deadline and I’ve got to get this turned in) that this game also qualifies for, and it has a record of 7-2 on Overs.
These two met twice already this season, and the totals landed on scores 159 and 178.
Minnesota games see an average score of 162′.
Seattle games see an average of 159′.
Both averages are above tonight’s number, a number that I see as opening too low to begin with and bet down even further by public overreaction to Collier being out.
And I’m much more comfortable with my money riding opposite Joe Public than I am when we’re on the same side.
I’m all over the Over in this one.
When to Buy Recommendation:
Opened at 159′.
Was down to 156′ when I started writing this.
As I’m finishing this, the first 155′ just showed up.
As long as it’s still dropping, I’ll wait a little bit longer. But I’ll be keeping a close watch on it because I know there’ll be a buyback later in the day.
Because IMO the number is just plain wrong.
Recap: 1-0
Record: 24-24
Review: I had over 156′ in the Golden State/LV game.
The Valkyries went HALF of the second quarter without scoring a single point.
At halftime, they were just 2-17 on three-point shots and only had 28 points.
Yet somehow I not only survived their weak effort but won my bet by 23 points.
And the B2B spot banks another Over.
