Last season I published an article with a different way of handicapping Regular Season Win Totals.
The standard way is to factor in personnel changes for the coaches and players, and estimate whether they’ll be a stronger team this year or weaker than the previous season.
Next, you analyze their opponents and try to judge whether it’ll be a win or a loss.
Then you add up the wins and losses, match your number against the number the books set their total at, and see if you have a large enough differential to make a play on the Over or Under.
But what if, instead, I set aside the standard handicapping methods and tried to determine which team will come in last place in their division, and then bet that team to go Under their season wins?
Because I was looking at a possible play on the New York Giants Under 5′ Regular Season Wins I chose the NFC East to do a 10-year sample look back.
Here’s what I found:
Year/Last Place Team/Book’s #/Actual Wins Over/Under
2015 Dallas 9½, 4 Under
2016 Philadelphia 7½, 7 Under
2017 NY Giants 9½, 3 Under
2018 NY Giants 6½, 5 Under
2019 Washington 6½, 3 Under
2020 Philadelphia 9½ 4 Under
2021 NY Giants 7½, 4 Under
2022 Washington 7½, 8 Over
2023 Washington 7½, 4 Under
2024 NY Giants 6½, 3 Under
Well, look at that.
In NINE of ten seasons the last place team in the NFC East finished Under the book’s number.
Seems like all you have to do is figure out who’s going to be the biggest loser, and you have a 90% chance of winning your bet on the Under.
Curious if this was an anomaly, I decided to look at the last-place teams in the other seven divisions in 2024.
Here’s what I found:
Team/Book’s #/Actual Wins Over/Under
New England 4½, 4 Under
Cleveland 8½, 3 Under
Tennessee 6½, 3 Under
Las Vegas 6½, 4 Under
Chicago 9½, 5 Under
New Orleans 7½, 5 Under
San Francisco 11½, 6 Under
Isn’t that interesting?
EVERY last place team came in Under their Regular Season Wins total. That’s 100%!
Nothing in sports betting is ever as easy as it looks, but it does seem that if you can figure out who’s going to come in last place, you’ve got a good chance of cashing a ticket on their Season Wins Total to stay Under.
To test this theory, I went back and did one more year, 2023.
Team/Book’s #/Actual Wins Over/Under
New England 7½ 4 Under
Cincinnati 11½ 9 Under
Tennessee 7½ 6 Under
LA Chargers 9½ 5 Under
Washington 6½ 4 Under
Chicago 7½ 7 Under
Carolina 7½ 2 Under
Arizona 4½ 4 Under
There it is again.
Eight cellar dwellers, eight Regular Season Wins Totals Under. 100%.
In a follow-up article I detailed a bet using this “Biggest Loser” theory.
I analyzed the NFC East, determined the season wins for each team, and concluded that the Giants would come in last place.
Their number was 5′, and I bet and recommended my readers take the Under.
The 2025 Giants finished with a record of 4-13.
Cha-ching, another winner for the Biggest Loser theory!
Now we can add last season’s numbers to this play.
Team/Book’s #/Actual Wins Over/Under
NY Jets 5′, 3 Under
Cleveland Brown’s 4′, 5 Over
Tennessee Titans 5′, 3 Under
Las Vegas Raiders 6′, 3 Under
New York Giants 5′, 4 Under
Detroit Lions 10′, 9 Under
New Orleans Saints 4′, 6 Over
Arizona Cardinals 8′, 3 Under
Six of eight came in Under, and most importantly, this included the Giants, the team I bet.
In 10 of the past 11 seasons the last place team in the NFC East has stayed Under their Regular Season Wins Total.
In the past two seasons, all divisions, 14 of 16 last place teams have come in Under their Regular Season Wins total.
Obviously, the teams that come in last place do so because they had a lousy year, so it stands to reason that their Season Wins Total would come in Under the book’s number. But the Biggest Loser Theory does offer a different angle to come from when trying to determine a winner for a Season Wins bet. Just figure out who’s going to come in last place and put your money down.
I won’t be betting against the Giants this year.
I’ve done so, successfully, two years in a row and don’t think it’s wise to go back to the well for one more, mainly due to the coaching change, bringing in John Harbaugh.
In 2007, the Ravens brought Harbaugh in as their new head coach. They went from 5-11 in 2007 to a completely reversed 11-5 in 2008, a six game swing in the W column.
Harbaugh gets results, quickly.
Last year the Giants finished 4-13.
This year books have set their number at 7′.
I’m tempted to go Under again but that number is tight. They had some young leaders last season who will be more experienced this year.
Looking at their opponents, I think Philadelphia falls short of last year’s 11 win season and both Dallas and Washington are mediocre, and subject to injuries at QB again that could wreck their seasons.
So if I’m not making my usual bet on the Giants Under, who AM I betting on for Regular Season Wins Totals?
Check back next week when I’ll have at least two bets in my follow-up article, including my pick for the NFL’s 2026 Biggest Loser Ov/Un Reg Sea Wins bet.
