Phoenix at Dallas
Who to Bet On
Thursday, July 3rd
It’s good news/more good news/bad news time.
The good news is that, after only one game being on the schedule so far this week, we have FIVE games to choose from tonight.
More good news – I have a lot of action to choose from using the different models I handicap with, including spots to play ON that have records of 3-1, 4-0, and 8-4, as well as some strong Fades at 6-11 and 3-6.
But . . . the bad news.
Conflicting records.
The 3-1 and 4-0 spots say to take the Wash/Min game Over.
BUT. . . Minnesota is a Double Digit Hm Fav and DD Hm Favs are 7-15 on Overs.
The 6-11 and 3-6 spot says take LA/NY Under, which makes for a combined 17-9 Fade that says take this game Over.
BUT. . . NY is a Double-Digit Home favorite.
And DD Hm Favs are 7-15 on Overs.
So, which system should I use?
The numbers on the above records are all league-based stats, meaning it’s for all teams all games.
If I look at team specific spots will I find anything that will help me make a decision?
New York Liberty are:
3-0 Over as a Fade in the 6-11 spot mentioned above. An easy choice to take the Over, right?
But they’re 2-4 if you bet the Over when they’re DD Hm Favs, making it a not-so-easy choice.
And it was the same when I looked at team-based stats for all the other plays I could choose from tonight – more conflicts, no clear choices.
But that’s what handicapping is – charting data, crunching numbers, and panning for that one gold nugget that can make your night.
Despite the conflicting numbers on all the plays I have that qualify for tonight, I’ll probably use one in the forum, so remember to check there later this afternoon.
But I do have one play with no conflicting systems:
Phoenix at Dallas.
Phoenix is -12 at Dallas tonight.
DD Rd Favs are 4-8 ATS.
In addition to that spot, one of the models I use is based on a seven or more point spread differential between my number and the books.
When it’s a dog, at Hm, the record is 2-1 ATS.
Not a lot of games qualify, but Dallas does tonight.
For some team-specific numbers, Phoenix has been a DD Rd Fav three times this season.
They’re 1-2 ATS.
For anyone looking at possibly playing the total on this game here’s a stat for you – all three games the Mercury have been DD Rd Favs have gone Over the total.
So, at 3-0, why am I not playing the Over too?
Because my main method for identifying totals to play has an overall record of 6-13, and is 0-2 on Overs.
And Phx/Dal qualifies tonight.
Yes, another case of conflicting records pushing me to a “no play” on the total in this game, too.
But that’s what handicapping is.
When to Buy Recommendation
This line came out 4 days ago and you could have gotten PHX -6.
It’s all the way up to -12′ now.
Why the large jump?
The Wings are the walking wounded.
Ogunbewale, Siegrist, Carrington are all out, and Hines-Allen is listed as questionable, while the Mercury are fully healthy, Sabally, Thomas and Copper are all in the lineup for a change.
And the Dream’s star rookie Paige Bueckers missed their last game with an injury. She practiced on Tuesday so she’s likely to play but if she’s out this line will go higher, so I’m going to wait.
Worst case, I’ll get the +12′.
If Bueckers is in it will be worth taking a look at some of her player props, such as her points to go Over. With all the other players out she’s bound to take more shots. The books will, of course, adjust for this, but will they adjust it enough?
Check the forum, if I get the right number I’ll add it as a play.
Am I happy about playing ON one of the worst teams in the league,
one who is just 2-6 ATS at Hm,
AND is playing a team that’s 4-3 ATS on the Rd,
AND has a bunch of injuries to their key players,
AND to a team that already beat them by 13 points this season, WITH Ogunbewale, Carrington, and Hines-Allen in the lineup?
Nope.
But as always, I’ll ride with my numbers/methods, despite Dallas’s locker room looking like a triage room.
My play:
Dal + (wait to buy)
Recap: 1-0
Record: 10-12
Review: Had Atlanta/NY Ov 164.
Landed on 171.
