Tex SA Road Runners at Fla Atlantic Owls
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
UMBC Retrievers at Marist Red Foxes
Jax St Game(can’t say that word) at S. ‘Bama Jags
Penn Quakers at Illinois Fighting Illini
“Would you say I have a plethora of picks today, Jefe.”
“Si, you have a plethora.”
“Do you know what a plethora is Jefe?”
But I digress.
Below, wonky handicapping stuff for handicappers only.
If you’re not a ‘capper and just want picks skip to the bottom of the article.
They say a picture is worth a thousand words, but I say it’s worthless if you don’t use it!
And I haven’t been.
I’ll explain.
I don’t mind handicapping multiple sports at the same time, but I don’t like betting too many different sports at the same time.
I like to focus on one or two at most, like college and pro football.
But I learned years ago that if I only handicap those two sports, when I switched to basketball when football reaches the Bowls and NFL playoffs, I have no data to work with.
So I ‘cap college and NBA basketball from the start of the season so I have some data to work with when I start betting on them.
But looking at my logbook I see that I’m missing out on some opportunities.
Let’s start with the NBA.
Look at the picture from the top of my NBA page.
Let me explain the different colors.
Each model I track has a different color ink.
My model for picking games where I think the books made the Wrong Team the Fav, WF1, is charted in orange.
Next to that you see the records for Home and Away.
To the right of the WF1 records you’ll see T1, my model for picking Over/Unders.
The top number, 2-1, is for Overs.
Below that, Unders.
Here’s the reason for the black ink on the records.
At the top of each page I carry over the record from the previous page.
When I started this current page the record for WF1 Rd spots was 6-3.
On 11-3 Minnesota qualified in their Rd game at Houston. They covered the spread so 6-3 becomes 7-3, and the record is updated with black ink.
So looking at the plays in the records what do you see?
I see missed opportunities.
WF1 is a combined 12-4. That’s 75%!
Hm spots are 5-1. That’s 83%!
Rd spots are 7-3. That’s 70%!
Missed opportunities!
For totals, I’ve got a combined 11-3. That’s 78%!
Overs are 2-1, 67%.
Unders are 9-2. That’s 82%!
Missed opportunities!
Yes I’m risking running into Reversion Toward the Mean but how do I NOT start playing those spots until the numbers do start to level out?
Now let’s look at college.
Here’s the picture.
T1 Hm spots are 4-1, 80%.
Unders are 3-8. That’s a 72% Fade!
And now let’s look at one more picture, from the College Football section of my logbook.
Look closely for my Puzzle Pick.
I usually spell out my plays and the reason for them but this one you have to figure out for yourself.
It’s right there in the picture.
I could go into the standard stats that you read about in every handicappers analysis of a game.
But they’re irrelevant.
I’m betting strictly on my models tonight.
My plays:
Tex SA Road Runners at Fla Atlantic Owls
(Puzzle pick, you figure out what the play is.)
Miami +7′
UMBC +5
Jax St +5′
Penn/Illinoisl Ov 173′
