Seattle Storm at LA Sparks
A Play on a WNBA Total
From My article dated July 27th:
“The record (for the Over on Gm2 of B2B’s) is now 10-5, 67% – The Grail.
It’s starting to look like last season again (when it finished 17-6, 73%), making it a no-brainer – play it every time.”
Correction: The record was at 8-5, 61%.
(I crunch a LOT of numbers; mistakes are going to be made. The important thing is to catch them and correct them in my database so that the information I use to make bets is accurate.)
Since that article, the play has gone 6-2, 75% over the last seven games.
For the season, it’s now 14-7, 65%, still a no-brainer, play it every time.
According to my chart, we have nine of these spots left this season. Based on results from last year and this year, the odds are it goes 5-4 worst case, so I’m playing every one of them.
Next up, today, Sunday, August 10.
Saturday night, the LA Sparks played on the road at Golden State. Today they’re at home against the Seattle Storm.
Let’s run the numbers.
Tonight’s game is a home game.
When B2B’s Gm2 is at Hm, the record on the Over is 6-5, one game over 50%.
When Gm2 is at Hm after a Rd game the night before, the record is 1-1, just 50%.
How about when Gm1 stayed Under?
When the first game was an Under, Gm2 went Over 8-4, 67%. Huge stat for an Over in this one since the LA game stayed Under last night.
Let’s look at a day-of-the-week subcategory.
It’s a Sunday game. This year the spot is 2-3 on Sundays.
How about team specific stats – has LA played a Gm2 of B2B’s this season?
Nope. No help there.
H2H?
These two have met twice this year.
The first game was in LA and saw 165 points scored.
The second game was in Seattle and saw 170.
Both games went Over the posted total.
But . . . both games were Under the posted total for today’s game, 173.
Recent play?
The Seattle Storm have gone Over in 7 straight games. For most bettors looking to play the Over in this one that seven straight stat looks good, but I don’t like it – remember what I always say about “reversion toward the mean” and jumping on streaks.
And it gets worse.
LA has gone Over in 10 of their last 12.
They’re prime for reversion.
How about Sunday totals?
LA is 3-1-1 on the Over on Sundays.
That’s okay.
Sea is 2-5 on the Over on Sundays.
That’s not okay.
Next up, I ran the game through my own handicapping models.
The game qualifies for an Under in my Hot/Cold Reversal system.
The record on these is 1-3, making it a Fade.
The “Play the Over in Gm2 in B2B’s spots” is 14-7, 67%.
It’s supposed to be a no-brainer.
It’s supposed to be an easy to make decision, no thought involved.
But then I went and thought about it.
The spot calls for an Over.
My personal model (H/C Rev) calls for an Over.
But the stat I’m going to weigh the heaviest is “day of the week,” a stat most people don’t consider, and some that do call it irrelevant.
But Sundays have a different feel to them.
And the Sunday numbers bother me.
It’s not just that the Gm2 of B2B’s spot has a losing record at 5-6 on Sundays, I didn’t like what I found when I applied today’s number to the 12 games Seattle and LA have played on Sundays.
Using today’s total of 173, three of LA’s five games have stayed Under.
And SIX of Seattle’s seven came in Under.
That’s 9-3 to the Under, 75%.
I’m looking for some reversion to the mean to counter recent play and high-scoring games from these two.
As usual, the numbers changed while I was writing this, the 173 is now at 172′ at most books.
G
imme the Under 172′.
And be sure to check the PredictEm forum later today. One of the WNBA games qualifies for one of my best handicapping systems.
Not sure if I’ll play it or not, still digging into the numbers, but I’ll post my findings in the forum with at least one other pick for today.
Recap: 1-0
Record: 25-24
Review: The years of experience I gained from running a sports book helped me to get a W on my last pick.
With the Storm’s top scorer, Napheesa Collier, out with an injury, the books over-corrected on lowering the total. And the public jumped on the Under, pushing it down even further.
Because of the miscalculations by the books and the public I took Over 156′.
They combined for 178, sailing Over the total by 22 points.
