Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty Bet
A short and sweet article today, guys, cuz I’m on the road. Sitting in a hotel in Vegas for a few days before I head off for a prolonged vacation.
Here’s where my money is going today:
Suns/Liberty Over.
The line opened at 166′.
Right now, the books are split between 164/164.
Since the line is moving in my favor, I’ll wait a little bit before buying it (and hope the casino I’m staying at has the best number, so I don’t have to shop around at other books). I’m hoping to spend most of my time at the poker tables.)
There are only two games on the WNBA card today and I thought I probably wouldn’t have any qualifying plays but the Sun/Liberty game fits my H/C (Hot/Cold) Trend Reversal spot.
The record for this play is 8-5, a nice win percentage at 61%. But when the play calls for an Over, the record is 6-2, a very solid 75%.
The standard stats don’t look good if you’re trying to make a case for the Over.
The Sun are 17- 18 Ov/Un on the season.
The Liberty aren’t much better at 17-19-1.
H2H (Head to Head) these two have met three times this season and two of the three were Under today’s posted total.
But betting the Over looks really unattractive when you factor in recent play.
The Sun have gone Under three of their last five, and six of their last 10 games.
New York’s worse, four of their last five games have stayed Under and eight of their last 10.
But that’s why this play is called Trend Reversal.
It’s my math model for trying to anticipate when reversion toward the mean is likely to come into play and a trend is going to start to level out.
Jumping on already established trends is a sure way to lose your money at sports betting.
One of the keys to beating your book is anticipating trends. Easier said than done, though, that’s why handicapping is difficult.
I’ll try to get into the forum later today to post the line I end up buying, and possibly a prop play too if I find one I like after I’ve run the numbers.
Recap: 1-0
Record: 28-30
Review: Made an excellent call in my last article.
I had two teams that qualified for the B2B Over spot, Minnesota and Phoenix.
I did an “If” bet – if the early game in Minnesota won, I would have no play on the later game in Phoenix.
If the Minnesota game lost, I would try and recover the unit on the late game.
I had the Lynx graded as a stronger choice anyway, so it seemed like the right way to go.
End result?
The Minnesota game went Over by 20 points.
The Phoenix game was on pace for an easy Over, but the scoring fell off in the 4th quarter, and it stayed Under by two points.
Using the “If” bet had me +1 unit on the day instead of minus juice. And combined with my record from The PredictEm Forum, I’m in a decent position to win my Battle with the Books for this year’s WNBA season.
Either way, it’s going to be an interesting final week or two of the season.
