Golden State Valkyries at Minnesota Lynx Total
Before I forget – be sure to check out the forum here at PredictEm tomorrow. I’m coming back with another prop bet that I’ve used twice and has paid off both times.
It’s official – I am now a Valkyries fan.
I don’t have a favorite WNBA team.
In fact, I don’t have a favorite team in any sport, except the Seahawks.
I get the question a lot, and when I’m asked, “Who’s your favorite team?” my answer is always, “My favorite team is the one I have my money on today. Unless they lose, then of course they’re a-holes. And I hate them.”
But I am now a Valkyrie’s fan.
Right out of the gate, I liked the name they chose.
I watched a few of their games and liked their style of play.
But what really converted me to full-fledged fandom is they have a record of 9-7.
And I bet them to go Over 8′ a regular season wins.
So now I’m a fan, BIG fan.
Unless they don’t help me cover the number in my play on the Over today. In which case, they’re . . .
I employ three different models to pick totals in the WNBA: T1, T2, and the H/C trend reversal spot.
T1 has kicked out 21 plays and is giving me decent numbers to Fade on both the Over and Under.
But T2 and H/C have been disappointing, combining for only eight plays all season long.
T2 is 6-1 combined, 4-1 Over, 2-0 Under, leaving me wishing it was giving me more plays to use.
And I have one today.
The books opened this total at 157, and it’s down to 155/154 right now.
My numbers for T2 says it not only goes Over that number but by more than 10 points.
Standard stats don’t look good for an Over.
Both teams’ records favor playing Unders.
Golden State is 6-10, and the Lynx are 8-10 for a combined 14-20 if you took the Over in their games.
But as always, I’ll stick with my numbers, especially when I see a gap of 10 or more points between my number and the book’s.
The play looks a little better looking at Minnesota’s recent play, where three of their last five games surpassed tonight’s total.
But the Valkyries’ numbers bring that down, with only one game covering.
To end on a good note, the final stat I’ll quote lends a little credence to the Over tonight.
These two met once already this season.
Minnesota won 86-75.
A combined 161.
Seven points Over tonight’s number.
And if Minnesota doesn’t go Over tonight I’ll probably come back with them for an Over tomorrow when they’re in the “Game two of B2B’s” spot.
This spot was very profitable last season at 17-6, 73% to the Over.
This year it’s 5-3 to the Over 62%.
AND . . . Last year, Minnesota was in the B2B spot three times. All three went Over.
My play:
GS/Min Ov (Wait to buy, I see one or two houses just dropped to 154. If that becomes the common number and is readily available to most bettors, that’s what I’ll use. Check the forum for an update later today on what number I get.)
And speaking of the forum, I hope to have at least one play posted for tonight. The Sparks visit the Fever in a game you can catch on NBA TV.
I don’t have a side or total in this one, but I do have a prop I like.
Recap: 1-0
Record: 11-12
Review:
My play, Dallas +12′, looked ugly on paper.
Byt they don’t play the game on paper.
They play it on the court.
I ignored the standard stats and all the injuries on the Wings and stuck with my personal handicapping models. And got a W when Dallas not only covered the double-digit spread but they won straight up by nine points.
After I placed my bet, I read a few write-ups from the various touts and EVERY one of them recommended a play on Phoenix.
And that’s when I knew I had nothing to worry about.
