Golden State Valkyries at Las Vegas Aces
Sunday, August 3, provides another opportunity to take advantage of a WNBA team in Gm2 of B2B’s.
This spot failed to cash on Friday night as both Golden State and Chicago were missing some of their top scorers.
The number was 153′ points and they fell way short, combining for just 139.
The play was DOA after a Q1 that saw a measly 29 points scored.
Tonight, it’s the Las Vegas Aces that are in the B2B. They’re at home, facing one of the two teams that failed me on Friday night, the Valkyries.
Here are the updated numbers on teams playing in the second game of back-to-back nights:
12-8 ATS
5-5 at Hm
7-3 on the Rd
Over 13-7
Hm 5-5
Rd 8-2
The Hm record has no edge on either the side or total, both at 5-5.
Breaking the number down into when Gm1 and Gm2 were both Hm games, there’s still no edge on the total at 4-4.
On the spread, they’re 3-5 ATS.
So, where is there an edge, if there is one?
All the numbers above are league-based stats, encompassing all teams.
It’s in team specific stats that an edge can be found.
LV has played in Gm2 of B2B’s twice this season.
They lost both games, ATS.
Both games went Over.
One of them was a Hm-Hm spot, both games at Hm, just like today.
Gm1 saw just 144 points scored.
Gm2 came in at 177.
In the two times they were in Gm2, they scored an average of 80.5, five points higher than their season average.
On defense in Gm2’s they gave up an average of 113 PPG.
That’s THIRTY points higher than their season average of 83.
THAT’S an edge.
Yes, it’s a small sample.
And yes, the competition they faced had a lot to do with those scores.
One game was against Minnesota.
The Lynx are the number one offense in the league, so it’s no surprise they scored a lot of points.
But LV allowed them to put up TWENTY-FOUR points higher than their season average.
The other game was against Washington, who has the third worst scoring offense in the league, putting up just 78 PPG. And yet the Aces allowed the Mystics to put up 94 points, SIXTEEN points higher than their season average.
Yeah, small data sample, but it looks to me like Las Vegas is not a team you want to back in Gm2 of B2B’s.
These two have met twice this season.
Back in June, they combined for 163 points.
In their last game, July 12, they combined for 206.
Yes, an NBA-like 206.
And no, there wasn’t an OT period.
I’m sure someone’s reading this and thinking, “Yeah, but Billings and Thornton were in for the game that saw 206 points scored – they’re BOTH out for this game.”
True.
But in that game, they combined for 15 points.
That’s not a lot of points to have to make up for in this game without them.
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When to Buy Recommendation:
I’m handicapping/writing this Saturday afternoon.
It opened at 156′.
I’ll wait till Sunday to buy it. I expect it to drop.
Why?
The Valkyries are in Game 5 of a five-game road trip. And they’ve gone Under THREE straight games and FOUR of their last five.
And on the season they’re 9-18 Ov/Un.
That will be on bettors’ minds tomorrow as they lay their money down on this total.
And the Aces are just 5-5 Ov/Un in their last 10, nothing screaming “Take the Over” there either.
Five-game road trips are rare in the WNBA.
I’m sure the Valkyries will be psyched up going into this game, looking forward to getting back home.
Just like they were in the final game of their last long road trip, one that was four games long.
One that saw 206 points scored.
Gimme GS/LV OVER* (wait to buy it.)
Record: 22-23
Down a few units and juice but finished June 12-10 in my articles and 12-7 in my forum picks, so heading in the right direction and looking to get Back in Black in August.
Note: typo earlier recommending the Un
