Golden State Valkyries at Chicago Sky
A Free Play on the Over
I noticed I’ve been using a lot of Overs in the WNBA, which is strange because my plays usually lean towards Unders, (especially in college football where identifying games that will stay Under the posted total has given me my greatest success in sports betting.)
But I have another Over tonight in the game between the Valkyries and the Sky.
I’m at the point in the schedule where I should do well because I’ve accumulated stats over the course of the entire season. As long as the scales don’t tip back to level (regression toward the mean) I should close out strong.
And the stats from one of my models tells me to take this game Over.
Of the three models I use for totals, the one I call T2 has the record of 14-9, a solid 60%.
But when it’s an Over the record is 10-6, which comes in a couple points higher at 62%.
And tonight’s game also fits a subcategory I track.
The point differential is not enough for it to qualify as a play for T1, but when my numbers from both T1 and T2 agree that the game will go Over, I have a record of 8-4.
From the point of view of a sports bettor who likes to watch his betting action playing out on TV (and cursing at it when things aren’t going well) it’s not a lot of fun using either of these two teams for an Over.
Golden State is 11-20 on Overs this season.
Chicago’s almost as bad at 15-16.
And the Sky have stayed Under in SEVEN straight games.
Hopefully, when making the number on tonight’s game, the books have properly accounted for the lack of scoring coming from both of these teams.
The game opened at 154 and has already been bet all the way down to 149, which works out well for me since I’m taking it Over.
When the line is moving in my favor, I’ll usually wait to buy it, but not on this one.
With a five-point gap between the opener and the current line there’s bound to be a buyback.
Plus, I see one or two houses have put a higher juice tag on the Over, so I doubt it’s going to get any lower.
I’m on GS/Chi Ov 149
Recap: 1-1
Record: 26-26
Review: I lost with the B2B Ov play on the NY/LV game on Wednesday but won with my prop bet on Sideshow Bob (if you’ve ever seen her you would get that joke.)
And it might have been the best bet I made all year from an entertainment/fun point of view.
I had Bob (NaLyssa Smith) rebounds Over 5′.
With just over one minute left on the game clock, she had 4.
I’m dead, right?
At 1:07, she grabbed a rebound at the exact same time the shot clock ran out. One tenth of a second later, and it would have been a dead ball; the rebound wouldn’t have counted.
She’s got five rebounds with only 20 seconds left on the clock.
My bet is a loser, right?
The Aces have the ball, up by four points, which means they’re going to get fouled, and I’ve got no chance for a rebound on the offensive possession. But before the Liberty can foul her A’Ja Wilson drives to the basket and misses a layu. And guess who’s there to snag the offensive rebound – yup, Sideshow Bob.
Two rebounds in 30 seconds, and I covered by the hook.
It doesn’t get any closer than that.
Or any funner.
In the PredictEm forum on Wednesday, I gave out Ogwumike Ov 15′ points as my play. I don’t know how many she ended up with because I quit watching before halftime – when she already had 16.
That gave me a 2-1 day and a little bit of profit which puts my season just a little above even.
I’ll be handicapping props for the next hour or two, if I buy anything I’ll add it in the forum.
Good luck with your plays today…
