Last year, at the start of the postseason, I took Minnesota and New York to win the WNBA Championship. When they both made it to the finals, I was able to hedge my bets and finish with a profit.
This season, I only see one team to pick, the Minnesota Lynx.
Here are the current odds on the field:
- Min +110
- LV +260
- NY +350
- ATL +1000
- Phx +1600
- Sea +6000
- Ind +10,000
- GS +10,000
Let’s start with the two obvious eliminations.
First up, the Clark-less Fever.
Even if Caitlin was playing, they don’t have enough pieces to win the championship.
They split 2-2 with their round one opponent, Atlanta, in the regular season, but there’s a reason why Indiana is +10,000 and Atlanta is +1,000. Home court advantage is more than enough for Atlanta to take out Indiana.
Say “fini” to the Fever.
The Golden State Valkyries FAR exceeded everyone’s expectations and have set a new bar for expansion team franchises, one that may never be broken. Their season win total was set at 7’/8′ – and they won 23 games!
But this team lives and dies by the three-point shot. When they’re on, they’re ON, but when they’re off, they’re awful, and despite the great in record, they finished near the bottom of the league at offensive PPG.
So how did they win 23 games as an expansion team, scoring just 77 PPG? Believe it or not, they had the number one defense in the league, allowing just 76 PPG.
An expansion team is not going to win the WNBA championship.
Goodbye, Golden State.
Next up, the Storm.
Seattle finished 4th in the West and 7th overall. They drew the Aces in the first round. Though they split the regular season series 2-2, Vegas is the hottest team in the league, peaking at just the right time to begin the postseason.
Sayonara, Seattle.
Phoenix faces New York in round one.
They took three of four from the Liberty in the regular season, so this is a good matchup for them.
Or is it?
In their first win against New York, the Liberty were missing Ionescu.
In the second win, NY was missing Jonquel Jones.
In their third win, Jones went out with an ankle injury just 9 minutes into the game.
In the only game when New York had all its starters, Phoenix lost by 13 points.
New York is healthy now.
All their starters will be playing.
This Phoenix will go down in flames, not rise from them.
The Atlanta Dream had a terrific season and should advance to the second round after dispensing with the Fever.
They finished the regular season with the third-best record in the league as new head coach Carl Smesco broke the record for most wins by a WNBA coach in his rookie season.
And they are the only team to have a winning record against the top contender, Minnesota, beating them two out of three during the regular season.
So why are they fourth in betting odds to win the championship, behind a New York team that won three fewer games than them?
Experience.
Minnesota, Las Vegas, and New York all have the experience edge over Atlanta.
They folded in the first round last year, 0 games to 2. I like them to make it to round two this season, but not much further.
Arrivederci, Atlanta.
This brings us to the three teams that have a legitimate shot to win it all: New York, Las Vegas, and Minnesota.
The Lynx took three or four from New York during the regular season and two of three from Vegas.
Minnesota has all the edges.
They’ve got the experience.
They’ve got the confidence.
They’ve got the talent.
And they’ve got the bench depth.
They not only finished with the best record in the league, but they also lost two straight only once the entire season, and that means a lot going into this postseason, where the WNBA for the first time will have a seven-game championship. Round one is best of three, round two is best of five, and the championship is now best of seven. So the ability to bounce back after a loss is a huge edge.
If you give me the best team, with probably the best player in the league (Napheesa Collier) and the best bench, AND + money in a field of just eight teams where five realistically don’t have a shot, I’m going to take it every time.
My play:
Minn +110
