Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream
Side and Total Picks
I got a rare visit from an old friend today, and it comes at a time when it’s much needed.
I’ve been treading water with my WNBA plays.
After taking ANOTHER loss with the Minnesota Lynx yesterday (I don’t want to talk about it), I’m 11-14 with picks from my articles.
I’m 11-11 with picks in the forum.
Like I said, treading water.
Down four units and some juice in my article picks, I’ve got a chance to get some back today, for two reasons:
- My pick today does not involve the Minnesota Lynx (I don’t want to talk about it.)
- I have an asterisk play.
Yay!
For only the second time this season, a game qualifies for a play that has been profitable for me in every sport I apply it to.
It rarely pops up, but when it does, it’s solid.
Last season, there were only eight games that qualified in the WNBA.
The record was 2-6, making it a solid Fade as usual, at 75%.
This season, only one game has qualified.
Back on May 27th WF2 said Connecticut should be the Fav in their game with Dallas.
Dallas was laying four points.
The Wings blotted out the Sun, winning by 22 points, making the asterisk play 0-1 this season, another win for the Fade.
Today, WF2 says the Valkyries should be the Fav. WF1 disagrees, and the point spread differential between my two models makes it qualify for an asterisk spot.
The line opened at -5, was up to -6′ when I started writing this, and is – 7 now. (I have to start writing faster.)
The game also fits one of my three models for picking totals. T2 says the game goes Over the 158 the bookies are offering.
T2 has a record of 6-2 this season, 4-2 on Overs.
And it also qualifies with a perfect record on a subcategory I track for T2.
I don’t like putting multiple bets in the same game. If my numbers are off, I can lose both plays.
Or, if the two teams combine to miss MORE THAN TEN LAYUPS, like Chicago and Minnesota did yesterday (I don’t want to talk about it) the game might not go Over.
But as always, I’ll stick with my numbers, especially when they kick out an asterisk play.
Looking at the standard stats I see:
GS is 11-6 ATS overall but just 3-4 on the road.
Many of their wins have come when they were double-digit dogs, but the books have caught on to the fact that this is a quality team, and the lines are coming down.
Atlanta is 10-8 ATS and just 5-5 at home.
This is the first meeting of these two teams this season.
For totals, the Valkyries are just 6-11 on Overs, and 4-6 on the Rd.
Atlanta is 10-7-1 for the Over, and 5-5 at home.
The stats don’t look too good for an Over, but eventually the pendulum always starts to swing back the other way, so maybe it’ll start tonight.
Tonight by the way is a Monday, a day that WNBA teams rarely play on.
The season started back on Friday, May 16th.
There have been seven Mondays between then and now. Only two of those seven had games on the schedule, each with just one game.
Monday, the day that most people who have jobs hate the most.
Monday, the day after partying on the weekend, the day that teams are too lazy/uninspired to play a tight defense?
Mondays, all games, the record on Overs is 1-1.
The one that went Over?
Golden State, on the road, at LA.
The total was 163.
GS scored 89, LA scored 81.
My plays:
Atlanta -7
GS/Atl Ov 158
Recap: 0-1
Record: 11-14
Review: I don’t want to talk about it.
(But if I DID want to talk about it I’d say that Minnesota screwed me again, starting off with a 10-point first quarter.
The best offense in the league, who averages 21 points per quarter, screwed me with a 10 point q1 Q1. But I don’t want to talk about it.)
(But if I DID want to talk about it, I’d say that the two teams combined for 10 missed layups.
TEN!!!
You know why they call them layups?
Because they’re supposed to be EASY!
But I don’t want to talk about it.)
However . . . if I DID want to talk about it I’d say this – here was the game in a nutshell: Minnesota bench rider Maria Kliundikova broke free for a fast break.
She missed the layup.
The defense was so far behind the play that she managed to get her own rebound, and…
Missed the put-back from right under the basket.
She got her own rebound AGAIN, and . . .
She missed her THIRD SHOT FROM RIGHT UNDER THE BASKET!
But I don’t want to talk about it.
