Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty
Indiana Fever at Golden State Valkyries
Who Covers the Spread?
There are two CC DD Favs (Commissioner’s Cup Double Digit Favs) spots in play tonight,
New York -10 and Indiana -12.
Here are the updated stats for these plays.
All games ATS 7-8
Hm 6-2
Rd 1-6
Ov Hm 1-7
Ov Rd 5-2
New York gets Phoenix after the Mercury played the night before at Connecticut. This puts Phoenix in game two of B2B’s (Back to Backs.) Last year, Phoenix played in two of these situations and were 1-1 ATS in game two.
With a strong Hm record of 6-2 for CC DD Hm Favs, I bought New York.
Adding to my decision, I have a new model I’ve been working on that looks for possible blowouts and the Liberty fit the qualifying parameters in tonight’s game.
Overall, the record for this play is 10-5, very playable at 67%. And when it’s a Hm team, the record is 7-3 ATS, even more playable.
Phoenix is 2-3 ATS on the Rd.
New York is 3-1 ATS at Hm.
The Liberty are 4-2 as DD Favs this season, good for 67%.
The Mercury are 0-1 ATS as DD Dogs, getting +12 at Minnesota and getting blown out by 23 points.
I’m looking for similar results tonight.
In the later game, The Caitlin’s are at Golden State.
Indiana was in this spot two nights ago and failed to cover as -17′ Favs against Connecticut, narrowly missing by the hook.
The Valkyries have been CC DD Dogs three times this season and have covered the spread in all three.
Overall this season GS is 5-1 ATS as DD Dogs.
Ind is 0-2 as DD Favs.
Hard to go against perfection, such as GS 3-0 in this spot. They screwed me two nights ago in Atlanta, hanging tough and covering until the final two minutes when they fell apart.
I’ll give them a chance for redemption tonight.
When to Buy Recommendations
The Liberty opened at -11′.
The common number right now is -10′, with a couple houses already dropping to -10.
I doubt it’ll dip into single digits, so I grabbed the -10. And, and doing my final check before submitting this article, I see that most houses are now back at -10′.
I HAVE to write quicker and submit sooner so I don’t lose out on the best lines. I’ll post this as a “Wait to Buy.” In the worst case, if the hook doesn’t drop off again, I’ll use -10′ here since that’s what most bettors will be able to get by the time they see this.
Golden State is easily available at +11’/+12.
My plays:
NY (wait to buy)
GS +12
WNBA record: 7-8
