Las Vegas Aces at Minnesota Lynx
Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty
At the All-Star Game the WNBA players donned t-shirts that said, “Pay Us What You Owe Us.”
I’ll support the players in their plight when four things happen:
- They stop missing so many layups.
- They finally come to the realization that there is a shot clock rule and that they must attempt a field goal within a period of 24 seconds after taking possession, or the ball turns over to the other team.
- They stop having quarters where they only score single digits.
- The league shows a profit for the first time ever (or at least stops losing a Colbert-like 50 million annually.)
But I digress.
On to today’s plays.
The Las Vegas Aces played last night at Indiana and travel tonight to play in Minnesota. That puts them in game two of B2B’s (Back to Back).
Teams in this spot are 10-3 ATS, 76%.
Teams in this spot are 8-5 to the Over, 61%.
Looks like an easy call for the Aces against the spread and the game to go Over, right?
But . . .
Minnesota is laying 10 points, making them a Double Digit Hm Fav.
Teams in this spot are 17-15 ATS, and 13-20 on Overs.
This is the same conflict I had with Indiana at New York last week. The game qualified for both plays, so I stayed off it.
The Hm team Fav won and the game sailed Over, leading me to go the same way and take the Lynx and Over tonight.
But . . .
Breaking down the B2B spot into the subcategory of where the two games were played, my charts show that when they were back-to-back road games, the B2B team is 6-1 ATS and 6-1 to the Over.
That’s more support for the total to go Over but I’d have to buck a 6-1 spot to play on Minnesota.
The B2B and DD Fav spots are typical league trends. Looking at my own personal models for handicapping, Minnesota qualifies for a system I just started tracking this season. It incorporates a point spread differential between my number and the book’s number.
Overall, the record for this model is 13-11, just a slight edge. But when it’s a Hm team the record is 10-6, providing me with a 62% edge.
Before I lay my money down, I want to look at some standard stats.
- LV is just 5-7 ATS on the Rd; edge Min.
- Min is 9-5 ATS at Hm; BIG edge Min.
- LV is 0-1 ATS as DD Rd Dogs; edge Min.
- Min is as 7-3 as DD Hm Favs; BIG edge Min.
H2H (Head to Head), these teams played once already this season, and the Lynx won SU and ATS, 76-62.
All the standard stats favor Minnesota tonight. The H2H meeting doesn’t favor my play on the Over, but both teams underperformed that night, shooting well under their regular-season averages. To dig a little deeper, I looked at Minnesota totals when they’re DD Hm Favs, wondering if they play a little slack on offense in games where they’re supposed to win easily and overlook their opponent. As DD Hm Favs the record on the total is 4-4, no edge.
The Over also qualifies for my Hot/Cold Trend Reversal spot. This model rarely kicks out a play; it only had 18 all of last year. This year, there’s only been one play thus far.
On Saturday June 7th it said the Phx/Sea game would go Over 155′.
The game landed on 166.
That additional trend is enough to make me take the Over tonight.
When to Buy Recommendation
The number on the side is catchable at anywhere between Min -9′ and -10′ right now.
The WAN (Widely Available Number) right now is -10. I think that might drop to nine by tip-off, so I’ll wait a little bit before buying this.
The total opened at 158 last night and is up to 161/162 right now. It’s readily available and easy to get at 161′ so that’s a fair number to use.
I also bought one prop for tonight, and I’m looking at a couple more that I’ll share in the forum.
I bought Sami Whitcomb over 1′ three’s.
The juice is high, but the number is soft.
With Ionescu defending her, I expect Sami to take AT LEAST six three-point shots tonight, and I only need her to hit two of them. Last time in New York, she took seven and hit five of them.
My plays:
Min (wait to buy)
LV/Min Ov 161′
Whitcomb Ov 1′ three-point shots, -148
Recap: 2-1
Record: 18-18
Review: Won two of three. Had Hamby over 6′ rebounds. She had 7 at halftime and finished with 10.
Split my bets on Ogwumike, winning on her points prop and losing on her rebounds prop.
