Matchup: New York Liberty @ Seattle Storm
Date/Time: Final week of the regular season
Location: Climate Pledge Arena — Seattle, WA
Betting Odds (BetOnline): Seattle Storm -1
ATS Records: Seattle 5–15 at home • New York 3–16 on the road
WNBA Free Play
New York Liberty at Seattle Storm
We’re down to the final three or four games in the WNBA regular season. Six playoff spots have been locked up, with the final one still up for grabs.
One of four teams is going to be eliminated from among the LA Sparks, the Golden State Valkyries, the Seattle Storm, and the Indiana Fever.
Right now, it’s the Sparks who are on the outside looking in, but they’re within one or two games of the other three contenders.
And I’m going with one of those contenders tonight – the Seattle Storm.
The Storm are at Hm against the New York Liberty.
NY is sitting in the fifth playoff spot, with no chance to move up, and a slight chance they could drop to sixth.
The Liberty have dropped two in a row and four of their last six games. They’ve been hit with injuries all throughout the season, with Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, and now Sabrina Ionescu all missing multiple games.
As they go limping into the postseason, I’m hoping that head coach Sandy Brondello rests some of her starters to not risk any of her players getting hurt in a meaningless game.
(Last year, the Liberty won the championship. I did a quick check to see how Brondello treated the last few games of the regular season and saw that NY lost two of three in similarly meaningless spots.)
The Storm are in the 7th spot right now, with the Fever and Sparks within one or two games of reaching them and pushing them out of the playoffs. So, obviously, we’ll get a maximum effort from Seattle tonight.
The Storm are coming off a loss to LA and can’t afford to drop another game tonight.
A fatal mistake many sports bettors make is assuming that “Must win” means “Will win.”
It doesn’t.
But I like Seattle in this spot tonight.
In their two previous meetings with New York this season, the Storm came away with wins by 10 points and nine points.
With their playoff lives on the line, facing a team that doesn’t have much to play for, AND I’m only laying one point at our sponsor BetOnline, I’m taking a chance with the obvious play and taking Seattle.
With an ATS record at Hm of just 5-15, Seattle is a risky bet, but New York is just 3-16 ATS on the road, so it’s a wash. One of those stats is going to experience a little reversion toward the mean tonight.
Hope it’s Seattle.
Recap: 0-1
Record: 28-32
Final week of the season, and I’m four games under .500 on picks in my articles. I’m 24-18 with my forum picks, six games over .500.
A combined 52-50 has me down 3-4 units with juice factored in. Not enough games left for me to Beat the Books in the regular season, but I’m close enough that if I have a good postseason I could come away with a small profit.
