WNBA Prediction: Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty
With my season down a couple of units, I’m looking to find something that has been working and ride it again today.
The Minnesota Lynx fit the bill.
Looking over my articles, I’ve hit five of my last six picks using Minnesota, including 2-0 in August.
So I think I’m seeing them clearly and ‘capping them correctly.
They’re in another prime match up tonight, facing their nemesis, the New York Liberty, a #1 vs # 3 game that’ll be well worth watching if you have $ on it.
And I will.
As noted in my last article, when these two played three days ago, Minnesota has home court locked up throughout the playoffs. This means they don’t have a lot of incentive to do their best, but New York is the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season, and each time they’ve played since then, Minnesota has had a chip on their shoulder and a point to prove.
The results?
They’ve won all three games against the Liberty this season. Tonight, they go for the sweep.
Here’s the series in 2025.
July 30: Minnesota Win, at Hm, 100-93
August 10: Minnesota W, on the Road, 83-71
August 16th: Minnesota W, at Hm, 86-80
3-0 SU
2-0-1 ATS
Avg margin of victory is 8 points.
Tonight, Minnesota opened at -1 and is now sitting at +3. I don’t have stats on WNBA teams that flip-flopped from the Fav to the Dog but I do have this – Minnesota has only been a Dog twice this entire season.
Here are the results:
August 5 at Seattle, SU Win, 91-87.
Aug 10 at NY, SU W, 83-71.
Notice how it wasn’t until this month, when the Lynx have home court wrapped up, that the books have them offered them as Dogs.
They expect a little slack and maybe less court time for their stars as they avoid injuries and rest them up for the postseason.
But Minnesota has a deep bench.
And in tonight’s game, they’ve got the extra added incentive of the fact that they just don’t like the Liberty.
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Minnesota excels in the role of the Dog.
They’re 2-0 this season.
Last year, they were the Dog 13 times.
They went 10-3 ATS.
And they won NINE of them SU.
Yeah, New York has a little extra incentive tonight, to not be swept. And they’re at home.
But you can’t pass up the Lynx plus points.
Anytime, anywhere.
I see a few houses have just moved to NY -3′, so it makes sense to wait a little longer, maybe I can get to +4.
One more stat for this play.
One of my two models for choosing the Wrong Fav, WF2, says Minnesota should be laying the points in this one.
WF2 is 23-14 on the season, and 14-9, 60% when it’s a Rd team like Minnesota tonight.
Later this morning, I’ll have at least one prop bet for tonight’s games posted in the PredictEm forum (in fact, I’m in the mood to go crazy and bet a few of them tonight). See you there.
Recap: 0-1
Record: 27-29
Review: I had an error in my last article.
Thought I had three systems for the over in ATL/GS. Incorrect, the Hot/Cold Trend Reversal was on the Indiana game, not Golden State.
Still, I had two strong percentages in my favor, but I couldn’t overcome another lousy performance by the Valkyries’ offense that shot just 35% overall, went just 7-29 from the 3-point line, and had a Q2 of just 10 points.
Golden State is now 12-22 Ov/Un.
That’s just 35% for the Over.
Am I foolish enough to try them on an Over AGAIN tonight??!!
I just might be.
Check the forum later.
