Indiana Fever at New York Liberty
Prop Bet Play
Handicapping in the morning is usually my favorite part of the day, but today it’s giving me a headache.
The Marquee matchup on Wednesday is Indiana at New York. Here are some records to consider.
Indiana is on the Rd in game 2 of B2B’s.
This spot is 5-0 ATS.
This spot is 3-1 Over.
Looks good for Indy and the Over, right?
Indiana is also a double-digit road dog.
These teams are 6-12 ATS.
These teams are 13-6 on the Over.
So I lose Indiana as a possible play because of conflicting records of 5-0 ATS and 6-12.
But the Over still looks good, right?
Once again, the Fever will be Clark-less tonight.
With Caitlin out of the lineup, the Over is 3-6.
With her, they average 85.5 PPG.
Without her, they average 79 PPG.
(Yes, I did a lot of stat work last night and this morning.)
So, based on 3-6, there goes the Over, right?
But wait a minute – what about the much heralded “Next Man Up” (or woman in this case) betting theory that says take a team in the game after they lose their star player as everyone else steps up to the plate?
Clark has been injured twice this season.
First game without her they lost 77-83 at Washington.
Second game they lost at home 75-88 to an extremely lousy LA.
They lost both games SU and ATS.
And both games stayed Under.
TOO many conflicting stats on both the side and the total.
Thus, my headache.
And now yours too if you’re looking at this game.
Still, because it’s the marquee matchup of the day, I HAVE to have some action in it.
So I’m turning to a prop bet.
I’ve done very well picking spots for prop bets using opposing players to take advantage of New York’s Jonquel Jones being out.
I’ve played five of them.
I’m 5-0.
Date/play/result
6/29 Gray Ov 4′ rebounds, she had 8
7/3 Hamby Ov 7′ rebounds, she had 9
7/6 Gabby Ov 12′ pts, she had 16
7/6 Gabby Ov 4′ rebounds, she had 7
7/13 Griner Ov 4′ rebounds, she had 10
Today I’m using . . .
Natasha Howard, Ov 6′ rebounds, -115
In her two games against the Liberty this season, she had eight rebounds and four.
BUT in both of those games, she played fewer than her standard amount of minutes, 19 minutes and 14 minutes.
She’ll likely get between 25 and 30 minutes tonight.
And she’s hit seven or more rebounds in six of her last 10 games.
With Jones out again tonight, I’m looking for her to get 7+.
My play:
N Howard Ov 6′ rebounds, -115
Recap: 1-1
Record: 16-16
Review: Got a split with my last picks in the Min/Chi game.
A 52 pt Q1 put me in position for an easy winner with the Over 161′, landed on 169.
Lost the Cardoso Over 11′ pts prop.
On Chicago’s first possession of the game, she missed a shot from right under the basket.
On Chicago’s second possession of the game, she missed an easy layup.
I’m an experienced sports bettor.
I can read the signs.
I knew how this one was going to end up.
She finished with just six points.
